Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 25 Apr 2022, 13:32

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 25 – Stock futures came under pressure overnight as fears of broadening China Covid-related lockdowns spread through the global markets. The VIX surged above 30 for the first time since March 15^th overnight, reflecting elevated fears levels on Wall Street. The dollar index pushed notably higher to a fresh two-year high above 101.7 early this morning as a safe-haven trade, while yields on 10-year Treasuries pulled back to trade near 2.81%. Crude oil prices are down nearly 6% this morning on the China lockdown story. The Ags are mixed this morning, with wheat prices pushing higher, while soybeans try to lead corn lower.

Dozens of residential compounds were locked down today in portions of Beijing as Covid continues to spread in China. Beijing, a city of more than 20 million people, may soon be facing the same widespread lockdowns as those continuing in Shanghai. Grocery store shelves emptied as Beijing residents hoarded supplies ahead of feared lockdowns, after seeing reports of food shortages in Shanghai in recent weeks. Beijing residents fear they may be forced to face similar shortages in the weeks ahead. Global stocks tumbled overnight amid fears that the lockdowns would continue to spread in some of China’s most populous cities, pulling that nation into a deeper recession, and the rest of the world with it. Roughly 344 million people, or a quarter of China’s population, are under some type of lockdown currently, according to investment bank Nomura. Shanghai, home to nearly 26 million people, is described as a ghost town. Fears are now rising that Beijing may soon suffer a similar fate.

The impact on China’s economy has been significant. Nationally, the data suggests that consumption fell 3.5% in March, with restaurant spending down 16%. April numbers are expected to be much worse as the lockdowns continue to spread through some of China’s largest cities. Reports of food shortages are common amid a lack of delivery workers, with people confined to their homes in many cases. There appears to be few things that China will not do to enforce its zero-tolerance policy regarding Covid. Commercial trucks must have passes to deliver food and household goods to the locked down cities. There’s a shortage of truck drivers willing to do the job. There are also reports of operators willing to pay $2,000 for a day pass, which is then priced into the groceries that they sell to residents of the locked down areas. Some neighborhoods only allow government-sponsored grocery distributions, while others do not allow residents to purchase diapers, baby formula or toilet paper, because those items are not seen as necessities. China is normally the world’s largest consumer of energy, but consumption is well below normal with people not driving or flying and many factories shut down. That’s why crude oil prices are tumbling this morning as fears of a Beijing shutdown spread across Wall Street. On a positive note, Changchun, capital city of Jilin province in northeastern China, is expected to slowly start reopening after recent lockdowns.

Most of Ukraine was placed under a long air raid warning for two hours this morning, as Russian airstrikes bombed five railway stations in central and western portions of the country, even as intense fighting continues in eastern and southern areas. An undetermined number of casualties occurred as the railroad stations were hit by airstrikes this morning. The rail stations have been central for refugees fleeing from the fighting, as well as for grain moving west for overland exports. Shelling and assaults by Russian forces continued along most of the front in the east of Ukraine, including missile and bomb attacks on a massive steelworks facility in Mariupol where an estimated 1,000 civilians are holed up along with roughly 2,000 Ukrainian fighters. Agronomically, Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports that 86% of the “expected” spring wheat acreage has been planted, along with 60% of the barely and 6% of the corn.

Palm oil prices surged initially overnight in follow-through buying from Friday when government officials shocked the world with a ban on exports. However, the edible oils markets saw a sharp sell-off after reports emerged that officials had told two exporters that some shipments of crude palm oil and RBD palm oil will still be allowed. Losses then spread through the oilseed complex as reports of possible Beijing shutdowns increased fears of reduced global demand for energy, cooking oils, meats, and those commodities used to produce those essentials. The above contributed to the broad sell-off in the commodity sector overnight. However, the hard red wheat classes held modest gains into this morning. USDA is expected to confirm additional deterioration of the Plains hard red winter wheat belt this afternoon, while planting delays are feared to decrease spring wheat acreage. China was another big buyer of U.S. soybeans overnight, purchasing 12.1 million bushels, although 9.7 million of that total sale will be new-crop supplies. Meanwhile, U.S. soybeans are cheaper than Brazilian for summer loadings.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.