Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 29 Apr 2026, 13:28

April 29 – Stock futures were mixed overnight as the standoff with Iran continues, and ahead of today’s anticipated policy statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The VIX is trading near 18, while the dollar index trades near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.88%. The energy and food-based commodities again found money flowing into them this morning as the Iranian standoff continues. WTI crude oil is trading near $104 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $115 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was broadly higher overnight, led again by Kansas City wheat amid ongoing weather problems in the U.S. Plains.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address the media one last time in his position of leadership today, before stepping down next month, when Kevin Warsh is expected to take the reins. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to conclude its second day of deliberation on policy at midday today, releasing its policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, with Powell then stepping to the podium to make a final statement and to take questions at 2:30 p.m. ET. No significant change in policy is expected to emerge out of this meeting, but rather the primary focus of the press conference is expected to be on the transition of leadership. I expect Powell to remain professional in his responses, as he has always been. Yet, he will likely be peppered with questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and how that is currently being challenged in the eyes of the press, while he will also likely receive a number of questions on whether he will step down from his position on the FOMC after his term as chairman expires, as well as his views on where policy needs to go from this point forward.

Ironically, Wall Street appears to be more focused on market fundamentals on Fed Day than it does on Fed policy, which is exactly what Kevin Warsh indicated to be his goal – to remove the central bank as the central focus of investors. As such, we can anticipate that we’ll see fewer FOMC members giving speeches on what they think the direction of policy should be – at least that is Warsh’s goal. They may not want to give up their speaking fees. We’ll also likely not see any more of the famous dot plot graphics reflecting FOMC member expectations of where interest rates are going over the next several years. Warsh prefers to see the Fed become a quiet manager of policy, removing it from its recent role of being the primary focus of the markets. I for one believe that is a good thing. I believe that Wall Street has become too obsessed with Fed policy in a way that has not been healthy.

But the Iran war will continue to be a central part of the Fed’s policy decisions, whether in public or in private. President Trump posted on Truth Social yesterday that Iran had communicated to him that it is in a “State of Collapse” and that they want him to “Open the Hormuz Strait as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!).” That statement initially was seen as an indication that back channel negotiations may be going well, and that President Trump may be willing to lift the U.S. blockade on Iran as a step of good faith, but there was no follow up to indicate such. In fact, Pakistan has since expressed its frustration with Iran’s slow response rate in the talks that it is trying to facilitate, suggesting that everything must go past an informal Revolutionary Guard group that appears to be running the country, with no single figure in control within the country. The Revolutionary Guard sees its best option to be to string the conflict out as long as possible, hoping that the world will turn on the United States, and hoping that the U.S. voter will do the same in the midterm elections. Meanwhile, President Trump appears to be locked in on blocking the Revolutionary Guard’s revenue to starve it financially. The Revolutionary Guard likely has just a small percent support among the people of Iran, but it holds the power because it holds the arms in the country. This is why I felt from the beginning that this will not end nice and neat like other conflicts, even if one agrees that the initial strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities was essential.

Durable goods orders rose 0.8% on the month in March, after falling by 1.2% in February. Analysts expected a 0.5% rise. Durable good orders minus transportation rose an impressive 0.9% in March, down from an upwardly revised 1.2% in February, but still well above the expected 0.4% gains. Core capital goods orders – an indicator of business sentiment – rose a strong 3.3% on the month in March, up from an upwardly revised 1.6% in February. These are very good numbers – strongest since 2017 if you throw out the post-covid rebound. Housing starts jumped at an annualized rate of 1.502 million units in March, up from 1.356 million in February, and above analyst expectations of 1.40 million units. That followed a surge in permits for starts that showed up in the February data. The bottom line is that recent data has continued to show growth in the manufacturing sector this month, and now in the housing sector as well, despite the ongoing Iran conflict. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also recently posted record highs on the economic data, again despite the ongoing war with Iran.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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