Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 21

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 21 Aug 2025, 13:29

August 21 – Stock futures were again under pressure overnight, with added losses following Walmart’s earnings report. Walmart raised its fiscal year sales and profit forecasts on strong demand, but it says something about the economy when consumers are rushing to the low-cost supplier, which restated its commitment to hold prices down in the current tariff environment. This morning’s weekly jobless numbers raised a few concerns as well, leading to an initial decline in Treasury yields. Traders are also bracing for what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may have to say in Jackson Hole, Wyoming tomorrow. The VIX is trading above 16 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 98.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near4.32%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.77%. Crude oil prices are modestly higher this morning, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mostly higher overnight as well.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 235K in the week ending August 16, up from 224K the previous week, and above analyst expectations that they would remain at 224K. The four-week moving average rose to 226.25K claims, up from 221.75K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending August 9 rose another 30K to 1.972 million, which is its highest total since November 6, 2021. The four-week moving average for continuing claims rose 6,500 to 1.954 million. Initial claims for former Federal civilian employees totaled 635 in the week ending August 9, down 2 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 8,237 in the week ending August 2, up 44 from the previous week. This morning’s weekly jobless claim total is at the upper end of the recent range, but not necessarily problematic if it doesn’t go higher. However, we continue to see that those who do lose their jobs are not finding new jobs, resulting in a slow growth of continuing claims. That’s something that the Federal Reserve is monitoring.

The Federal Reserve is gathering at Jackson Hole, Wyoming for its annual symposium sponsored by the Kansas City Fed bank. Its focus this year appears to be to develop a new framework for guiding monetary policy going forward, which Powell is expected to outline in his comments tomorrow morning. The Fed pivoted toward the labor market in 2020, allowing inflation to surge, and uncertainty to rise. Inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% mandate for the majority of the time since that pivot, when it stated its objective was for inflation to average near the mandated level over time. The Fed isn’t expected to totally disregard the 2020 framework, but a recalibration is expected. The reworked policy is expected to emphasize that stable inflation is the best foundation for a healthy labor market. The minutes of the July Fed meeting that were released yesterday indicated that the central bank was close to completing its reworked framework, and that the new product “would be designed to be robust across a wide range of economic conditions.” The problem in my opinion is that the Fed continues to rely on academics to shape its understanding of the economy rather than people who actually work in that economy. It needs to hear from people who have actually had to make payroll – both large and small businesses.

The Federal Reserve only controls the level of its short-term benchmark interest rate, which is currently pegged between 4.25% and 4.50%. That’s down 100 basis points from where it was a year ago. But the Fed held the rate below 2.50% from March 2008 to September 2022. There are long-term consequences for keeping rates that low for that long, particularly when you inject trillions of dollars into the economy. We’ve been paying the price for that policy. The Fed felt that it “got away with” the low interest rates and liquidity injections when inflation remained relatively stable prior to the pandemic, leading it to dramatically double-down on that policy during the pandemic in what became the broad emergence of Modern Monetary Theory. But it failed to consider the implications of regulations on the economy, which were very high at times during that post-Recession period, and then were dramatically reduced prior to the big influx of pandemic stimulus. The Fed still does little to mention the animal spirits of the economy at times when it is unleashed with deregulation & lower taxes and stifled during times of increased regulation and higher taxes. That must be part of its framework as well if it is going to reach a point of policy stability.

The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour will focus on northern / eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota today, before wrapping up with a meeting in southeast Minnesota tonight, and the release of Pro Farmer’s official yield estimates tomorrow afternoon. Both corn and soybean yield potential was strong in western Iowa, as expected. Soybean pod counts were also quite strong in Illinois, but corn yield potential was disappointing. Put it altogether, and the market believes that the tour has not uncovered any evidence to this point that the corn crop is any bigger than what has already been priced into the market, although soybean yield potential is still being determined. That leaves the soybean market in a period of uncertainty, while corn traders are starting to shift their focus to strong demand.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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