Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 8

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Fri, 08 Aug 2025, 13:23

August 8 – Expectations of a more dovish Fed are leading stock futures to point to a stronger open following the announcement of President Trump’s nomination of Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to fill the vacant spot left by former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s recent resignation. Fears of more political influence on the Fed have certainly increased nerves on Wall Street amid the ongoing public criticism of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with last month’s rare double-dissent on holding rates steady seen as a sign of this pressure creating divisions among members, especially given the end of Powell’s term being in sight. Direct political influence on the Fed is objectively a negative thing, and the market has responded as such at times in recent months—however, this situation has shifted rate cut expectations notably, which is the current focus. It wasn’t long ago that the odds for the first rate cut of 2025 had been pushed back to October, but CME’s FedWatch tool this morning now shows 91.5% odds of a rate cut at next month’s meeting being priced in, as well as additional 25-basis point cuts at the Fed’s October and December meetings.

Meanwhile, Wall Street looks mostly calm to end the week, with the VIX cooling back to the 16.3 level and limited economic data on tap. The dollar is looking to rebound from the losses seen over the last two days, trading above 98.2 to start the day. Treasuries are slightly in the green as well, with 10-year yields at 4.27% and 2-year yields at 3.75%. Crude oil prices are attempting to stem the week’s sharp losses, up ~0.2% at the time of writing to trade just below the $64 level after pushing to a fresh two-month low in recent days. The ags are quietly mixed amid very low trade volume in the overnight session with market focus looking ahead to next week’s fundamental updates from the USDA.

U.S. consumer inflation expectations rose slightly in July according to yesterday’s release from the New York Fed, with year-ahead inflation seen at 3.1% compared to the 3.0% seen in June. Despite the slight uptick, this is still a marked improvement from the spike up to 3.6% seen back in March and April amid the height of U.S. tariff uncertainty and follows the same pattern seen in other similar recent metrics. Interestingly, three-year-ahead inflation expectations stayed flat at 3.0% but five-year-ahead inflation expectations rose the sharpest of all, hitting 2.9% in July versus the 2.6% seen in June.

President Trump and Russian President Putin may meet in person in as little as days to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to Russian government officials. This follows Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s trip to Moscow this week—while the details have still not been ironed out at this point, the U.A.E. has been suggested as the most likely meeting site. This would represent the first time a U.S. president has met with Putin in person since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine back in February 2022. Today is also the deadline for the ultimatum President Trump laid out for Putin following his recent ramp-up in threats of tariffs and/or sanctions on Russia if they did not agree to advance peace efforts. He has also suggested the possibility of issuing up to 100% secondary tariffs on nations buying Russian exports; Wednesday’s additional 25% tariff on India was in response to their ongoing large-scale imports of Russian oil.

It's not just crude oil or other energy products that India and other original BRICS members have been buying from Russia, there are major ties in the ag industry as well. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, their fertilizer exports to fellow BRICS members (namely India and Brazil) skyrocketed as other buyers stepped away for fear of being caught up in sanctions. As can be seen in the first chart below, the biggest year-over-year jump in Russian urea exports to these nations happened between 2021 and 2022, coinciding with the war’s breakout. However, this situation isn’t unique to the BRICS alliance—our imports of Russian fertilizer have increased substantially during this time as well.

The second chart below shows the steady increase in U.S. urea imports from Russia in recent years, hitting a record high in 2024 and nearing that level already through the first six months of 2025. This makes Trump’s threats of punitive measures that would cut off trade flows from Russia very important to the domestic nitrogen market (Russia is also our top UAN supplier). If the planned meeting between Trump and Putin leads to a cool-down in these threats, expect to see Russian tons flow even heavier into the U.S. given the E.U. tariffs on fertilizer from Russia and Belarus that just went into effect on July 1, pushing more of their supply elsewhere. This flow, coupled with China’s long-awaited easing of fertilizer export restrictions for a short period this summer, could finally allow the urea market to see a correction ahead of the upcoming fall application season, which would be very welcomed by farmers given the poor affordability currently being seen amid rallying fertilizer prices and falling grain prices. Much of the shift to a more bearish sentiment in the urea market in the last few days is also in response to Chinese exporters being allowed to sell limited volumes directly to India—could this be another sign of growing cooperation among original BRICS members amid the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.?

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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