Perspective: Morning Commentary for February 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 29 Feb 2024, 14:03

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

February 29 – Dow Jones futures reversed course to indicate a higher open this morning following the release of PCE index data for January; the lack of a surprise there encourages the trade, even if it’s unlikely to budge the Fed from their cautious outlook in early 2024. We’ve seen three straight minor losing session by the Dow this week but values remain very near last Friday’s record high, and the benchmark index is set to post its biggest gains for Jan-Feb since before the pandemic. Volatility remains low with the VIX down and trading below 14.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 24 came in at 215k, above the average 210k trade estimate, with the previous week revised slightly higher as well (from 201k to 202k). Continuing claims for the previous week also came in above estimates at 1.905 million, up from the average 1.875 mln guess and 1.860 mln the week prior. It would appear that U.S. employers are cutting back on hiring but also not laying off workers; the labor market has remained pretty strong even through the interest rate run-up.

Personal income for the month of January rose by an even percentage point from December, ahead of the average 0.4% expectation and 0.3% in Dec; personal spending matched estimates at 0.2% in Jan, down from 0.7% in Dec. The PCE Core Deflator rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, matching trade estimates, with the MoM reading ticking higher compared to December – that does little to calm the fears of the Federal Reserve using caution before bringing interest rates back down in 2024, with preferred inflation measures proving sticky still.

U.S. exporters sold just 5.9 million bushels of soybeans on the week ending February 22, after a marketing-year low 2.1 mbu sales total the week prior. China was the leading buyer at just 5.7 million bushels, but 14.4 mbu were cancelled out of the “unknown” category for the second straight week. Cumulative sales to China stand at 813 mbu through right around half the 2023/24 marketing season, down from 1108 mbu last year, with soybean sales to all destinations at 1434 mbu, down from 1778 mbu LY. Seasonally, overall soybean export sales are now 29 mbu or 2% behind the pace needed to meet the current USDA estimate, and that number is falling rapidly. Soybeans are down double-digits this morning after failing to hold at matching lows from two of the last three sessions; we’ve had a period of high prices since late 2020 but it’s now looking like a return to the level of the six years prior, when spot soybeans hung generally in the $8-11/bushel range through a series of strong crops…

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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