StoneX Grain Recap
Bevan Everett Grain Recap Report in English
Bevan Everett
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 10
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
June 10 – Stocks fell and crude oil prices rallied after President Trump posted a message essentially saying that Iran had “taken too long to negotiate a deal,” and that “now they will have to pay the price!” Additional volatility came from this morning’s consumer inflation data, which came in hot, but similar to expectations. That allowed stock futures to come off their session lows. The VIX is trading near 21 at this hour, after trading as high as 22.5 earlier in the session. The dollar index is trading near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.12%. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $92 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly higher this morning, along with the energies.
The headline consumer price index rose 0.5% month-on-month in May, down from 0.6% in April, but matching analyst expectations. The headline CPI rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, up from 3.8% in April, but matching analyst expectations. The core CPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose just 0.2% on the month in May, down from 0.4% in April, and down from analyst expectations of 0.3%. The core CPI was up 2.9% year-on-year in May, up from 2.8% in April, but matching analyst expectations.
Medical services rose 0.5% on the month in May, but otherwise the May inflationary pressures were primarily an energy story tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Medical care commodities fell by 0.7% on the month in May, while transportation services dropped by 0.6%. New vehicle prices also fell by 0.3%. while all commodities excluding food and energy fell 0.1% on the month. Natural gas prices continue to defy the increases in the remainder of that sector – falling by 0.5% on the month in May. But overall energy prices were up 3.9% on the month in May, with gasoline prices up 7%, fuel oil up 3.8%, and electricity up 0.6% on the month. Fuel oil prices are now up 58.9% on the year, while gasoline prices are up 40.5% on the year.
The initial market reaction reflected the “good news – bad news” nature of this report. The bad news is that inflation is going higher. The good news is that the May data shows that the primary inflationary factor is energy. The optimist would say then that this inflationary cycle is transitory, and that it will quickly pass once the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is opened again. The pessimist would say that the Strait of Hormuz isn’t likely to fully open for some time, and that the global energy deficit will get worse before it gets better, even if the Strait were to open tomorrow, and that’s not likely to happen. Furthermore, energy inflation eventually ends up showing up in about every other category, because those higher freight costs, packaging costs, heating and cooling costs, etc. eventually end up raising prices for everything.
President Trump gave the orders Tuesday evening to strike Iran in retaliation for Iran’s shooting down of a U.S. Apache Helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military reportedly hit additional Iranian air defenses, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites largely near the Strait of Hormuz. Those likely would have been sites responsible for the Apache helicopter downing, and the downing also gave the U.S. an excuse to strike more sites near the Strait of Hormuz responsible for keeping ships from passing through the Strait. Iran responded by sending missiles and drones into Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, indicating that it was targeting U.S. military bases there, although no damage was reported at any bases within those countries. Further escalation came this morning when President Trump posted that Iran has “taken too long to negotiate a deal,” and that it will “now have to pay the price!!!” This suggests that a much larger military strike is in the planning. Early indications are that additional military action may include power plants and bridges. The bottom line is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and that’s likely to continue as long as Iran has any missiles / drones left that it can launch toward ships, and as long as mines remain in the water in the Strait.
Corn, soybean and wheat prices were all modestly higher overnight. Sellers have backed off this week following the recent strong liquidation phase seen in the sector, as prices hit chart objectives and USDA’s WASDE crop report approaches tomorrow. Fund managers will likely reassess whether they want to resume their selling after tomorrow’s report. For now, prices are finding support from a surge in end user buying – both domestic and export demand. The recent liquidation phase was a gift to end users that they’re more than happy to accept. That end user buying is seen in both the United States, as well as South American markets that are based off the Chicago markets; Chinese buying included. It’s now estimated that Chinese buying of Brazilian soybeans for the 2026-27 marketing year tops 9 million metric tons – with most of that being for the February to April period, but some for September and October delivery as well.
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
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