Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 17 Jun 2024, 12:33

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

June 17 – The Dow Jones Industrials are set to continue last week’s decline, when the high close came on Monday and four straight losing sessions followed; futures are only indicating small declines in the DJIA and S&P 500, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ pointing higher this morning and looking to extend record highs. Treasury yields are edging higher this morning to 4.24%, with the U.S. dollar fairly steady after a strong run into the end of last week, and the VIX ticking higher as well but still depressed in the 13-point area.

The New York Fed reported general business conditions for the Empire State at a -6.0 reading for June, up from -15.6 in May and above the average trade estimate of -10.0; factory activity in NY shrunk less than expected and the six-month outlook for overall business activity doubled to the highest level since March 2022, a positive long-term sign. Economic data is on the lighter side this week but Retail Sales figures for May highlight the early part of the week tomorrow, and Jobless Claims for the week ending June 15 are on tap for late-week on Thursday.

Central Bank officials are due to meet in Australia, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom this week; the trade isn’t expecting a policy move in the U.K. but Swiss officials will be in focus with that country already on the rate-cutting bandwagon. U.S. Fed officials should be giving comments throughout the week on their policy shift from last week, starting with the chiefs of the New York and Philadelphia Feds expected later today. The Minneapolis Fed President yesterday said it was “reasonable” for the central bank to wait until December to start cutting rates.

Our Ivy Li in her China Direct Daily Recap commented on disappointing economic data in China today dragging on equities there; retail sales for May grew 3.7% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but below the trade expectation of a +4.5% figure. The country’s industrial production slowed from 6.7% in April and 5.6% in May, missing the average trade guess at 6.0%. China also reported the second-sharpest housing price decline in almost a decade for May, as the country tries to rebalance the housing market via increased government policy aid.

The grains have made their intentions clear with price action around the weekend; strong volume accompanied a clear follow-through overnight following Friday’s losses, and the key grain contracts now sit safely on the bearish side of chart moving averages (resistance). The trade continues to hold a bearish slant on U.S. fundamentals as well, with another optimistic Crop Progress report expected this afternoon. The U.S. dollar firmed up into the end of last week following Federal Reserve comments, and that is putting pressure on soybeans in particular, as exports continue to lag in the face of strong shipments from market-setter Brazil. Corn exports have been better as of late and there is some hope for the bulls in that 2024/25 S&D, if old-crop exports lead to a lower carryin and the USDA has to come off its optimistic new-crop yield and production figures. We still have almost two weeks until the June 30th stocks and acreage reports (actually June 28^th this year), either of which could throw a wrench into the market in either direction, and often lead to interesting price direction through there and the July 4^th holiday…

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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