Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 03 Jun 2026, 13:31

June 3 – Stock futures were mixed overnight as tensions slowly escalate again in the Middle East, although the tech sector was poised for another possible record day as the sun rose over Wall Street this morning. The VIX continues to trade near 16 as investors appear increasingly desensitized to the daily flow of headlines out of the Middle East and the Black Sea, or the impacts of those conflicts. The dollar index is trading near 99.4 as it continues to trade in a sideways range that has contained it for more than a year. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.49%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.08%. WTI crude oil was again stronger this morning, trading near $95 per barrel, while Brent traded near $97 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were largely firmer as well.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed for business this morning. That’s the bottom line of all the headlines coming out of the Middle East, and that is likely to remain the case for some time – likely months into the future. I pray that I’m wrong about that, but I’m a realist. The indirect talks between Iran and the United States continue, but there is little evidence that any progress of substance on the critical issues is taking place. Iran wants to drag this process out as long as possible, in my opinion, believing that time is on its side. President Trump seems content to allow Iran to do so. Iran’s economy is certainly paying a price with the United States blockade stopping the flow of oil revenue into the country, but the Revolutionary Guard is thus far willing to pay the price. The United States military is big enough to end this war once and for all, but thus far it is not willing to pay that price, as it would likely necessitate troops on the ground in Iran.

Iran again attacked Kuwait today, triggering another rise in crude oil prices. Kuwait International Airport suspended flights after drones and missiles from Iran damaged its facilities, along with other diplomatic missions. At least one person was killed in the attack, along with more than 60 injuries, in an attack involving at least 13 missiles and 17 drones coming from Iran. Kuwait reports that multiple civilian facilities were also damaged in the attack. The airport is now attempting to resume flights from one terminal. Bahrain said that it intercepted three missiles and several drones from Iran as well. Meanwhile, the United States downed more drones targeting civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, Israel continues to battle Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, which further irritates Iran as well. Yet, Wall Street seems to see all of this as simply, “more of the same.” That may change when the energy markets start truly responding to the growing global deficit currently being created by the closure of the Strait. Thus far the world has experienced pain, but that pain has been muted somewhat by the utilization of strategic reserves and previously sanctioned oil. It will be a different story when that runs out. Some industry analysts believe that we won’t fully restore the flow of energy to reverse the deficit until well into 2027, and that’s if the war were to end now.

China’s private PMI data released this week paints a bit better picture than did its official data, although areas of concern remain. The RatingDog China PMI is compiled by S&P Global, focusing more on private and smaller firms, while China’s official data tends to focus more on larger state-owned enterprises. The private composite PMI rose to a three-month high of 54.0 in May, largely driven there by the service sector, as well as those manufacturing in government subsidized sectors. The data showed some growth in domestic demand, while export orders slipped modestly again. Most sub-indices firmed, although the employment index contracted again. Overall, China’s recovery remains uneven, with high-tech firms and services outperforming, and property linked sectors like cement and steel continuing to struggle. Elsewhere, China released its “15^th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization” late on Tuesday. It was rich with rhetoric about making food security a priority and stabilizing rural income, but it again was light on substance and detail on how China intends to reach that goal.

A firm’s AI tool was turned against it, according to a story in Reuters. Hackers apparently used Meta’s META.O AI support chatbot to access high-profile accounts by persuading the tool to reset account credentials without independently verifying identity, according to the story. This story hits at a time when Meta steps up its commitment to the use of AI by pledging another $145 billion toward AI infrastructure, while shedding thousands of jobs. AI critics fear that the technology will cost millions of jobs, while supporters say that tech firms are merely right-sizing after over hiring during the post-pandemic boom. At the very least AI is reforming the employment sector. Like other innovations, it lowers costs of tasks, which tends to increase demand for those services. Yet, employment does change as the increased efficiency of those tasks reduces demand for some roles while increasing demand for other roles. This is not that much different than a host of other innovations throughout the history of our country. Those innovations tend to cause pain to a sector of employees, while growing the broader employment sector.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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