Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 21

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Thu, 21 May 2026, 13:33

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

May 21 – Geopolitical tensions are back in the headlines to open trade on Thursday, with stocks pointing lower and crude oil pointing higher amid a potential hang-up in negotiations with Iran. The VIX is slightly higher to start the day, though remains near the low-end of the recent range as it hovers around 17.7 at the time of writing. The dollar is starting off in the green after yesterday’s losses, holding near the top-end of the tight range seen this week as it trades at 99.43. Treasuries are starting off slightly higher as well, with 10-year yields at 4.61% and 2-year yields at 4.10%. Nearby WTI and Brent crude oil are both up around 3% on the day, trading just below $102 and just above $108, respectively, at the time of writing. The ags are mostly lower to start the session, though only slightly so.

Iranian Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly issued a directive that the country’s enriched uranium should not be sent abroad, throwing a fresh dose of cold water on negotiations with this being one of the biggest sticking points for both the U.S. and Israel. For what it’s worth, Iran’s new Supreme Leader has not appeared publicly since the war broke out, fueling speculation that he was severely harmed in the early days of the war. The uncertainty surrounding who is actually calling the shots in Iran at this point is likely to some extent a calculated move given the repeated targeting of the country’s leadership, but the defiant and hardline stances seen in recent negotiations appear to reflect a growing role of the IRGC, using the Khamenei name as more of a figure head. Regardless of who is truly in charge of the country at this point, today’s developments appear likely to hinder negotiations, keeping the back-and-forth of the last few months in play as the conflict approaches the 12-week mark this weekend.

China and Russia signed over 40 agreements at this week’s Xi/Putin summit covering technology, trade, media, nuclear cooperation, energy, infrastructure, etc. However, Putin did not get the big deal he had hoped for, with Xi again withholding final approval of the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. This appears to be a real show of the shifting of power in the relationship, with Russia becoming increasingly dependent on China amid their diplomatic isolation following their invasion of Ukraine. While China remains openly supportive of Russia, stating that relations between the two countries reached a “historical peak,” they continued to remain cautious in refusing to openly endorse Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, preferring to frame themselves as more of a stabilizing force than a partner choosing sides. Still, China and Russia released a joint statement following the meeting criticizing the U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran while also warning against Japan’s remilitarization, highlighting the underlying geopolitical tensions in play.

It will be interesting to see President Trump’s response to the optics of the Xi/Putin summit somewhat overshadowing his own trip to Beijing in the previous week. The timing of his comments that he intends to speak directly with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, which would be a notable break from diplomatic norms, may not be coincidental, with Trump yesterday saying, “I speak to everybody… we’ll work on that, the Taiwan problem.” This was, expectedly, one of the biggest points of contention in the Trump/Xi summit last week. Most of the up-front contention centers around a potential $14B arms sales package to Taiwan that Trump has yet to give final approval on, something that could be seen as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China and something worth keeping an eye on near-term.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 209k in the week ending May 16^th, a tick below expectations of 210k and a slight drop from the upwardly revised 212k in the week prior. Continuing claims came in at 1.782M, also slightly below expectations of 1.785M but representing a small week-over-week rise with the previous week being revised down from the 1.782M initially reported to now sit at 1.776M. The four-week moving average for jobless claims fell to 202.5k, a drop from 204k in the week prior and representing the lowest level seen since January 2024. The U.S. labor market has continued to show impressive resilience, pointing to a strong U.S. economy but adding to a growing hawkish tilt as the market shifts its expectations towards higher rates ahead.

U.S. housing starts beat expectations in April, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.465M, above the average estimate of 1.41M. This was a 2.8% month-on-month decline, though it’s worth noting that March was revised higher from the 1.502M previously reported to sit at 1.507M, the highest level seen since December 2024. Similarly, U.S. building permits beat expectations in April, rising 5.8% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.442M, well above the average estimate of 1.385M. Interestingly, today’s headline strength shows a reflection of rising mortgage rates weighing on the single-family sector, with much of the rise being driven by multi-family builds. Single-family housing starts were down by 9% while single-family permits were down by 2.6%; conversely, multi-family starts and permits surged by 14.3% and 21.8%, respectively.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 2

July 2 – It’s a tale of two extremes on Wall Street at midday, with the lower rate expectations following this morning’s ugly jobs print providing tailwinds to drive the Dow Jones to another fresh all-time high and remain in the green (+0.5%) at the time of writing, while the ugly selloff in the tech sector is driving the Nasdaq sharply lower (-2.1%), leaving the S&P caught in the middle (-0.6%). The VIX remains relatively muted, up from the morning lows but still on the low side of recent ranges as it hovers around 16.7. The dollar continues to hang in the red amid the aforementioned shift down in rate expectations, though it has bounced from its lows as it currently hangs around the 100.8 level. Treasuries are mixed at midday as well, with 10-year yields up on the day to 4.48% while 2-year yields are down on the day to trade near 4.13%. Crude oil has rebounded through the session as well, with nearby WTI now slightly in the green around $68.20 while nearby Brent remains slightly in the red near $71.20. The ags have lost steam through the session, now trading largely mixed after erasing morning gains.

Mike CastleThu, 02 Jul 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 2

July 2 – All eyes are on the labor market to start the day, with the Friday holiday pushing June’s Non-Farm Payrolls report up to the same day, and release time, as weekly Jobless Claims. It was a very ugly headline print for Non-Farm Payrolls with only 57k jobs added in June, effectively only half of the expected 110k. To make matters worse, both April and May were revised lower by 31k and 43k, respectively, to now show a combined 277k jobs added instead of 351k. Despite this negativity, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% from the 4.3% seen from March through May, representing the lowest headline unemployment reading since June of last year. However, the drop was largely a function of a collapsing labor force participation rate, falling 0.3% month-over-month to sit at only 61.5% in June, a low not seen since March 2021 during the pandemic recovery. Average hourly earnings came in as expected, up 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, as did the average workweek at 34.3 hours.

Mike CastleThu, 02 Jul 2026, 13:24

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Morning Grain Comments 7-2

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 02 Jul 2026, 11:55

Grains & Oilseeds

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