USDA Report Estimates - June 2026
USDA Grain S&D Report - Trade Estimates for the monthly publication
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 5
By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
Guest Commentary by Mike Castle
Senior Commodities Economist
May 5 – Red hot earnings and eye-popping AI spending plans are allowing markets to shrug off fresh escalation in the Middle East to start the day, with stock futures pointing to a positive open in turnaround Tuesday fashion following yesterday’s losses. The VIX is cooling as well, hovering around 17.7 at the time of writing after pushing above 19 yesterday. The U.S. military said yesterday that two U.S.-flagged merchant ships made it through the Strait accompanied by U.S. naval assets, with Maersk confirming at least one of those. As could be expected, Iran has cast doubt on the U.S.-led push, following their strikes yesterday on both the U.A.E. and various vessels in the region. The U.A.E. strongly condemned yesterday’s renewed attacks, as did the leaders of both India and Pakistan. Despite this renewal in hostilities, crude oil is starting the day in the red, with nearby WTI off roughly 1.2% to trade around $103.90 while nearby Brent is off 1.6% to trade around $112.60. Meanwhile, the dollar is roughly unchanged at 98.5 as it sits right in the middle of its recent trading range seen over the last month or so. Treasuries are sitting just below unchanged, with 10-year yields a tick below 4.44% and 2-year yields just below 3.95%. The ags are mostly lower, led down by the wheat complex with rains falling across much of the Plains as well as Eastern Midwest today.
U.S. building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.363 million in March’s final reading, down from the preliminary 1.372 million. The percentage drop looks massive, though that’s largely a function of February's sharp upward revision to sit at a two-year high of 1.54 million. Still, it’s the weakest month of building permits in the U.S. since August of last year.
The market has plenty of more important economic data on tap both later today and throughout the week, however, with a fresh look at the health of the U.S. labor market with the March JOLTs report due out at 9:00 AM Central Time, along with a fresh update on the housing market, and final April PMI’s from both S&P Global and ISM. The week will be capped off with the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month of April, due out Friday morning, with preliminary consumer sentiment for the month of May following it. Add in expectations of rapidly developing geopolitical headlines, and we’re likely set for another interesting week.
Soybean planting remains at a record pace, advancing 10% week-over-week to reach 33% complete, though that was 2% behind the average trade guess. Meanwhile, corn planting matched the average trade guess of 38% complete, advancing 13% week-over-week. Milo (sorghum) planting saw a very slow week, advancing only 2% from the week prior to sit at 22% complete, the slowest at this time in four years. Spring wheat planting is a little on the slow side as well, primarily in Minnesota and North Dakota, reaching 32% complete this week, 12% behind the same week last year and the slowest pace in three years. It’s been a dry few days for most of the Midwest, which means we should see notable progress in the week ahead, save for the areas catching the largely spotty and scattered systems in the forecast.
U.S. winter wheat conditions were a mixed bag on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, with good/excellent rising 1% week-over-week to now sit at 31%, just above market expectations of holding steady but still 20% below the same week last year amid ongoing stress on the Plains. That deterioration was still reflected in the report, however, with the winter wheat Condition Index still falling by 1 point to now sit at 286 due to a 2% uptick in the portion rated poor/very poor, now at 37% nationally. Colorado has now fallen into last place at only 5% good/excellent, a record low at this time, while Nebraska’s 2% weekly uptick in poor/very poor to 67% represents a record high at this time; both highlight the extent of the worst areas. There were some notably improvements in soft red winter wheat country though, with Illinois and Missouri both improving by 8% week-over-week to sit at 72% and 75% good/excellent, respectively, while the rest of the eastern belt remains generally in good shape (save for a nosedive in smaller producer North Carolina to only 11% good/excellent). The soft white wheat crop in the Pacific Northwest remains in great shape as well; it is worth noting that Washington fell 8% week-over-week, but their 84% good/excellent remains the highest at this time in at least a decade.
The winter wheat crop is also maturing well ahead of schedule, with 49% now headed, up sharply compared to the 37% seen at this time last year while running well ahead of average. Top producer Kansas was reported at 70% headed, up from 41% last year and the most at this time since 2016, with Colorado already at 20% compared to the previous 5-year average of 0.2% at this time, and Nebraska/South Dakota both at 6%, both also well ahead of normal. The reason this is worth keeping in mind is that the further the crop is along, the higher the risk of damage from a freeze and/or frost event. Forecasts show chances of overnight lows dipping below freezing for a considerable swath of the Plains, potentially dipping as far south as western Kansas, as shown in the accompanying forecast maps from Commodity Weather Group. Keep in mind also that these maps show the minimum forecasted overnight lows for the next two days. These systems do look to bring in moisture, however, which will benefit those who receive it, but it will also be important to watch how cold, and for how long, this latest push sends temperatures.
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