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Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 6

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

May 6 – Could one page be enough to open the Strait? That’s the question to which markets appear eager to answer “yes,” as reports of the U.S. and Iran nearing agreement on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war send crude oil prices, and the broader commodity sector, tumbling and stocks in the U.S. and abroad ripping higher. This memorandum was reported following President Trump’s announcement to pause the new naval mission Project Freedom as he cited “great progress” in negotiations with Iran. Details of the potential agreement as of the time of writing are scarce, but we should learn more as the day goes on. It should also be noted that this agreement would not be a final end to hostilities but rather start the clock on a 30-day period to negotiate a more comprehensive deal.

Abundant optimism in the tech sector underpins the market’s eagerness to shrug off the conflict in the Middle East, with an impressive earnings season providing a fresh jolt in the U.S. and abroad. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed at an all-time high again yesterday and is poised to surge even further on the open, with the S&P 500 set to do the same; Dow Jones futures are pointing to a strong open as well, albeit still off the record highs seen back in February. The upbeat mood on Wall Street has driven the VIX to a fresh three-month low just below the 16.2 mark this morning. The dollar is falling as well, pushing to its lowest level since the war began earlier in the session but since bouncing back to hover near 97.95 at the time of writing. Treasuries are also in the red, with 10-year yields trading back below 4.36% and 2-year yields trading below 3.88%. Crude oil is sharply lower amid the push for peace in the Middle East, though off the session lows following President Trump’s comments to the New York Post that it’s still “too soon” to start thinking about face-to-face peace talks, with nearby WTI down roughly 6.2% on the day to trade near $96.30 at the time of writing while nearby Brent is down 5.5% to trade near $103.80. The ags are similarly down hard amid the broader commodity sector selloff, though also off their session lows as traders await fresh headlines regarding a potential peace deal.

This tech-driven strength is not exclusive to the U.S. either, with South Korea’s KOSPI surging above 7,000 for the first time in history, driven by semiconductor stocks with Samsung alone up 14.4% on the day to an easy record high. China’s stock market returned from their May Day closure with renewed strength as well, with the Shenzhen Component Index closing at a new record high, up 2.3% on the day, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index both closed 1.2% higher. A surge of travel and consumer spending within China over the five-day holiday period has boosted optimism there, with the data for both coming in better than expectations and pointing to surprising resilience.   

A blowout ADP Employment report adds to the optimism as well, with this morning’s data showing the U.S. adding a net 109k jobs in April, a 15-month high and easily beating analyst estimates of 99k. The service sector saw the largest gains (+94k), with education and health services (+61k) leading the pack there. The goods-producing sector also added a net 15k jobs, with construction (+10k) being the leader on that side. Despite slowing growth amid a move toward a low-hire, low-fire environment, the U.S. labor market continues to show impressive resilience in its recent data, with the most important release coming in the form of Friday’s Non-Farm Jobs report.

Before we get too excited about today’s peace prospects, let’s also keep in mind that we’ll need to see the response from the Iranian side, reportedly expected in the next 48 hours. Given the growing internal division within Iranian leadership, an agreement with one party may not necessarily be enough to reach consensus; we’ve seen the IRGC rebuke more pragmatic cooperation from the civilian government previously. Some Iranian media sources have already poured cold water on the news, but that can be expected amid the ongoing fog of war. As has been the case for months now, the market will continue clicking the proverbial refresh button and reacting to new headlines as they arrive. Still, the optimism regarding the tech sector and a resilient labor market appear to be keeping underlying strength present.

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