Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 08 May 2023, 13:35

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

May 8 - Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the week, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones showing strength while the Nasdaq looks to begin the day in the red. The VIX has cooled from its late week run to hover around the 19 level. The dollar is under pressure once again, hanging just below 101 to start the day. Treasuries are looking to start the week off positively, with 10-year yields up slightly around 3.51% while 2-year yields push near 4%. Crude oil prices are continuing upward following Friday's strength, with the nearby WTI contract pushing above $73 this morning after dipping all the way down to $63.57 during Thursday's session. The ags are mixed to start the day, though the wheat complex looks to continue its recent strength with ongoing uncertainty in the Black Sea bringing more attention to the poor U.S. crop and production problems elsewhere.

Regional bank stocks are starting the week off on a positive note, led by strength in PacWest Bancorp who have come into the spotlight in recent weeks with fears of the next failure. Assuring comments from the company, along with announcements they were cutting dividends, have given investors some amount of faith as the stock looks to rebound from its recent dive and help provide some sense of calm to the market. Other regional banks that have been under fire in the last few weeks are joining in on the Monday rebound as well, with Comerica, Zions Bancorp, and others in the green to start the day. Banking sector fears have continued to linger over these last two months and Wall Street would certainly love to put those fears in the rearview, though it's too soon to do so at this point.

U.S. consumer credit rose much sharper than expected in March, with Friday's reading showing an increase of $26.51 billion, well above market expectations of a $16.8 billion jump and marking the largest increase seen since November. February was also revised higher to show an increase of $15.29 billion. March's increase was largely driven by a 17.3% increase in revolving credit, like credit cards, the largest such increase since March 2022. At the same time, nonrevolving credit, like auto and other big ticket item loans, slowed to an increase of only 3%. This seems to suggest that while consumer spending and demand are showing resilience, they seem to be shying away from purchasing big ticket items. This was also reflected in Friday's Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which showed used vehicle prices drop 3% month-on-month in April, the first monthly decline seen since November. With the ongoing economic uncertainty, consumers are still spending but shifting what they're spending on and perhaps being more cautious on pulling the trigger for larger purchases.

Russia started the week off with their largest wave of drone attacks on Ukraine in months on the eve of their coveted Victory Day holiday tomorrow, though some celebrations are reportedly being scaled back due to security concerns after the attempted drone attack on the Kremlin. In a move emphasizing their goal of realigning with the West, Ukraine will welcome Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission tomorrow to mark the occasion. Russian forces are reportedly attempting a final push to capture the eastern city of Bakhmut in order to have something to show for the holiday after over a year of war. Far from the front, however, Russian strikes continue to target Black Sea port cities. Ukraine's top agricultural port city of Odesa was hit again, setting fire to a storage facility and reportedly injuring multiple employees. With the renewal deadline for the Black Sea export corridor now only 10 days away, concern of Ukrainian grain being largely cut off from the global market again continue to grow, though they have been able to make last minute deals previously.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Morning Grain Comments 8-6

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 06 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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