Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 15 Nov 2021, 14:35

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 15 – Stocks are poised for a positive start to the week, as earnings reports continue to show solid economic growth, albeit with challenges from rapidly rising prices, a tight labor supply, and supply chain disruptions. Wall Street will also be listening for any potential headlines coming out of tonight’s virtual summit between President Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 95.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 1.59%. Crude oil prices are trading more than 1% lower this morning at 10-day lows, while the Ags were mixed in overnight trade – firming in early trade again.

The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 30.9 this month, up from 19.8 in October and up from analyst expectations of 22.7, as the economy continue to roll, despite its challenges. Both new orders and shipments posted substantial increases this month, while unfilled orders rose as well. Delivery times were significantly longer this month, while employment grew at its fastest pace on record. The average workweek increased as well. The prices paid index held near record highs, while the prices received index hit a new peak. Surveyed firms indicated that they plan to increase capital and technology spending in the months ahead amid optimism that conditions will continue to improve over the next six months, although the strength of that optimism waned somewhat.

Tensions may be at all-time highs between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. President Biden will attempt to address those tensions in a virtual summit tonight. The White House says that trade tariffs will not be discussed, and human rights may not be addressed either, but Taiwan is expected to be addressed. Taiwan and the South China Sea are probably the most sensitive points for China currently, as it exerts its claim over both. Meanwhile, the Biden Administration has been taking steps toward seeking greater international acknowledgement of the independence of both. China questions our conviction following the U.S. departure from Afghanistan, leading toward stepped up efforts to gain control of both Taiwan and the South China Sea through intimidation. Tensions increased last week when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Washington and its allies would take unspecified action if China were to use force to seek control over Taiwan. The White House is downplaying any expectations for concrete deliverables out of tonight’s summit, indicating that it sees the talks as a way to re-establish a working relationship. As such, the tensions will likely linger through the winter Olympics to be hosted by China, amid growing cries for the Biden Administration to boycott them. I continue to see Taiwan as a possible “black swan” event that must be respected as a risk to the commodity markets over the next couple of years.

China reported 32 fresh Covid-19 cases yesterday, with 25 of those being in the port city of Dalian. The good news is that the numbers from the tour group outbreak seem to be under control. The bad news is that the outbreak coming allegedly from cold chain exposure remains a risk, with a high raking official specifically mentioning today the need for better management of the cold chain industry. That could further complicate port congestion and supply chain disruption issues ahead of the holidays. Domestically, the added restrictions are hurting the economy, with people staying home more and traveling less. For example, Xiamen had a small outbreak in September, with no new cases after October 7^th. Yet, October passenger traffic through the Xiamen airport was down 68% year-on-year, reflecting the reluctance of people to risk encountering someone who might test positive a couple of days later, requiring mass quarantines and testing requirements.

USDA confirmed the sale of 9.7 million bushels of U.S. soybeans to “unknown destinations” this morning, along with 7.8 million bushels of U.S. corn sold to Mexico. Roughly 2 million bushels of the corn sale is for next year’s crop. A steady flow of demand news is needed by the markets currently, with the supply side of the balance sheet pretty well established now. Good rains fell across the bulk of Argentina in recent days, whereas the bulk of Brazil is well supplied with moisture as well. Some climatologists believe that the pattern will trend drier in South America as we head into December, but that remains unknown. I continue to hear chatter out of China of pent-up demand for U.S. distillers’ grains. Shipments of DDGS to China have been nearly nonexistent due to China’s stiff anti-dumping duties, but the deadline for filing the paperwork to extend those duties quietly passed on Friday. There’s been no official announcement from China yet, but speculation is growing that the door will soon reopen for importing the feed. The problem is the shortage of containers needed to ship the DDGS. The container shortage may not end anytime soon. Regardless, it adds a big more intrigue to surging domestic soymeal prices due to Canadian demand.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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