Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 28 Nov 2022, 14:29

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 28 – Stock futures turned lower overnight amid increased public protests in China over its dynamic-zero Covid policies, and the tightening of security measures to stamp out the protests as Covid numbers continue to surge. All of this takes place on “jobs week” on Wall Street, with traders anticipating that Friday’s monthly jobs report will show a continuation of the tight employment sector that supports a hawkish Federal Reserve policy. The VIX gapped higher to trade above 22 overnight as fear levels elevate again on Wall Street. Meanwhile, the dollar index fell to a fresh three-month low near 105.3, before finding support near its 200-day moving average. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.69%, after falling to a nearly eight-week low overnight. Yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.47%. Crude oil prices fell to fresh 11-month lows on the China news amid fears that global demand is slumping more than supply. The China news also weighted on grain and oilseed prices overnight, although they firmed to at least trade near session highs this morning.

China reported 40,052 new cases of Covid-19 on Sunday, with more than 90% of those cases asymptomatic and only showing up due to China’s aggressive testing program. Yet, the numbers continue to rise, resulting in additional restrictions and lockdowns in many areas of the country, including key economic centers. A fire Friday night in Xinjiang that killed 10 people triggered widespread public protests over the possibility that China’s strict lockdown measures may have contributed to the deaths. Public protests are very risky and rare within China, due to the government’s ability to use surveillance video to identify participants. Yet, public unrest has reached the boiling point in some locations. Many Chinese still support President Xi Jinping’s dynamic-zero policy, believing that it is the best way to protect China’s aging population, but those who do not support it are becoming more vocal.

A local election in Taiwan captured the attention of the world over the weekend. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is the prevailing political party in Taiwan, focused on a platform of Taiwanese independence. However, the party suffered a significant defeat in a local election that some observers say may be a message from the people wanting to see the recent rise in tensions with the mainland eased. The people of Taiwan may still stand for independence, but they may not want the issue pushed to the point of conflict, as they fear may be happening. The weekend defeat was so great, that the chair of the DPP resigned Saturday evening. The next scheduled elections in Taiwan will be in 2024, so we’ll have to see how this changes the rhetoric ahead of those elections.

Russia is artificially slowing down movement of grain moving out of Ukraine ports via the “grain initiative” by slow-walking ship inspections, according to Ukraine’s Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov. The grain initiative was recently extended for another four months to allow grain and products to continue moving out of three approved ports in southern Ukraine. However, the agreement requires that the ships be inspected prior to arriving at Ukraine, and then again on departure from Ukraine. Those inspections require Russian participation in the inspection process. There are currently 77 vessels waiting for inspection in Turkey, while the ports of Odessa are only operating at 50% of their capacity waiting for ships. Kubrakov posted on his Facebook page today that it should be possible to inspect 40 ships per day, but there are currently five times less inspections per day. He added that October shipments under the initiative totaled 4.2 million metric tons of grain, while that total fell below 3 mmt in November due to the inspection delays, within a system that should allow up to 6 mmt of shipment per month if functioning properly.

Argentina restarted its “pesos for soybeans” program today that was so effective in getting farmers to sell soybeans in September. The program is scheduled to last through the end of December this time, reimbursing farmers 230 pesos for every USD$1 of soybeans that they sell. The program is designed to encourage exports that will strengthen central bank reserves of foreign exchange dollars that it can use to make its dollar-denominated debt payments. The current official exchange rate is 166 pesos to the dollar. Chinese demand for January soybean shipments is estimated at 5.8 million metric tons, of which roughly 1.75 mmt has been booked. Chinese buyers are expected to take advantage of the pesos for soybeans program to snatch up at least 1 – 1.5 mmt of lower protein Argentine soybeans, reducing the amount of higher-priced U.S. soybeans they need to purchase to close the gap ahead of new-crop Brazilian supplies becoming available. This is yet another factor arguing for the need for USDA to pull back on its corn and soybean export targets, although improved domestic demand should offset the cuts.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.