Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 9

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 09 Nov 2022, 13:51

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 9 – Wall Street stepped back overnight from the previous gains, as it waits for the final election results, which may still be some days away. Stock futures were lower overnight on the uncertainty of the election outcome, but support came from the fact that the S&P 500 stock index traded higher over the 12 months following every mid-term election of the past 70 years, regardless of who won. The VIX continues to hover around 25 this morning, while the dollar index firmed to trade near 110.2 after bouncing off key chart support on Tuesday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.67%. The negative bias in the equities spread over the broader commodity sector as well, with both the energy and the grain and oilseed sectors under pressure overnight.

Wall Street cares not about Republican or Democrat labels, but it does care about policies that will favor money flow for the markets. It hasn’t been a good year on Wall Street, with traders worried about declining money flow in the economy at a time when inflation and geopolitical risks create challenges. As such, it was looking for a change in direction, and contemplated the possibility that the elections might provide that. The assessment the morning after the elections is that very little has been decided. The Republicans will still probably take the House, while the Senate is still a big unknown, and may remain that way for some days. Even the House is still up for grabs. A Republican majority in the House, if it happens, would likely be too small to give it a mandate, although it could create enough gridlock to slow government spending that contributes to inflation. It might also slow new regulations feared by the tech industry. Yet, traders also take comfort in history, that shows that the S&P 500 has ended up higher by varying amounts a year after every mid-term election over the past seven decades. Everyone on Wall Street is familiar with the disclaimer that says that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, but it does provide at least something for Wall Street traders to cling to amid a world of lingering uncertainty this morning.

Stocks were again lower in China today as well, but for different reasons. Euphoria over the possibility that officials might soon open up the economy took values notably higher last week, but last week’s excitement turned into disappointment over the weekend and into despair this week. Health officials doubled down on their commitment to dynamic-zero Covid policies on Saturday, adding extra concern this week as infection numbers rapidly rise. New Covid infections rose to 8,176 on Tuesday, despite efforts to isolate people who have tested positive, as well as those who were exposed to known cases. The rapidly rising Covid numbers now impact many regions of China with tens of millions of people, including Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Henan. Guangzhou, which is home to many factories and export firms, is at the epicenter of the current outbreak, raising concerns that China will see even greater lockdowns that shut down supply lines ahead of the holidays. That could also drag China’s economy closer to recession, reducing demand for commodities as well.

Yet, China’s Covid problems have not eased its geopolitical risks. President Xi Jinping spoke to the joint operation command center for China’s military Tuesday, accompanied by new recently appointed leaders to China’s Central Military Commission. Xi Jinping urged the military to implement the spirit of the 20^th Congress that met last month, highlighting that China now faces unprecedented challenges and uncertainties with accelerating major changes. He stressed that the nation faces tough tasks in military conflicts, suggesting that the risks China faces have escalated to another level that could trigger military action. The inference here is that China will feel a need to take control of Taiwan to remove perceived external threats to its sovereignty. That would have significant implications for China’s commodity imports, and those sources of those imports.

USDA’s monthly WASDE crop report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. Chicago time today. It will be viewed within a context of the above, which has a negative bias toward the economy and toward the consumption of commodities. The primary supportive risks currently are if Russia blocks extension of the trade agreement that allows Ukraine to ship grain in the months ahead, or if weather notably reduces supply beyond currently known levels. But the current focus is on the economic risks that threaten to reduce consumption, providing the context for today’s release. As such, momentum is on the side of the bears if USDA fails to provide significant surprises to the contrary today. The areas that will be the primary focus today will be U.S. corn and soybean yields, as well as the extent to which USDA reduces export demand for those same two commodities.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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