Perspective: Morning Commentary January 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 23 Jan 2026, 14:39

Today's Perspective Video: The United States Won't Invade Greenland & Soybean Export Math

January 23 – Stock futures pulled modestly lower in the early morning hours today after Intel forecast quarterly revenue and profits below expectations. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 98.3 as it hovers just above two-week lows. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.25%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.62% as the yield curve continues to flatten a bit this week. Crude oil prices are more than 2% higher as they continue to consolidate either side of the $60 per barrel level, while the grain and oilseed sector was mostly firmer overnight as well, garnering a boost from an USDA weekly export sales report this morning showing that the big price break following the agency’s January 12 crop report generated a great deal of export demand, with additional support coming from the adverse weather expected across the country this weekend.

Much focus will be on China’s National People’s Congress meeting in early March to see if we see a shift in policy redirecting economic priorities. China’s been battling a problem with over-production, leaving it flush with high-tech products that get dumped on the world market at cheap prices, leading many countries to establish tariffs on those products to protect their domestic industries. Those tariff wars continue to be a significant problem for sustaining China’s manufacturing sector, which is a key engine for the Chinese economy – an export-based economy. The South China Morning Post cited three sources stating that China will likely lower its growth target in 2026 to a range of 4.5% - 5.0%, down from its typical 5% target. If true, that announcement would be expected to be made at the National People’s Congress. That official growth target sets expectations influencing decision making across the market chain. A lower target would signal a policy shift, likely guiding officials at all levels of government to prioritize efficiency and quality over speed and scale. Such a pivot would be expected to ease over-production stress, but it would also likely lead to a rise in unemployment, lower income growth rates, a reduction in commodities, and create challenges for the economy attempting to make a soft landing.

China’s consumer confidence remains just above record low levels, creating challenges for officials seeking to shift its economy from an export focus to a domestic consumer focus. Chinese households put the bulk of their assets into their property, but property values continue to slide year-on-year as the country’s population declines – lowering demand for property – and as the struggling economy leaves less revenue available for property purchases. Local governments depended on property sales to generate much of the revenue needed to operate, but that revenue stream is down at a time when the central government demands that they spend more on stimulus programs, creating a massive debt load at the level of local governments. One of China’s goals is to stabilize the property sector, to boost revenues for local governments and to strengthen consumer confidence so that they spend more. Its focus is to develop urban renewal plans and high-quality housing to create that demand. The central government expects local governments to carry out these objectives, which is a challenge for these local units already burdened by debt. Thus, the property sector continues to struggle.

Weekly export sales for the week ending January 15 were released this morning. You may recall that USDA released a bearishly construed crop report on January 12 that sent prices for many Ag commodities into a downward spiral that day. Prices started the next day weak as well, but then seemed to find some firm footing, which has generally held in the days that followed. This morning’s report confirms that the buying that stabilized prices was at least partially the result of strong export demand that emerged on the price break – buyers saw value at those levels. It doesn’t mean that prices can’t go lower, but for now, end users see value at current levels. The week’s sales included 157.9 million bushels of corn. The top buyer was “unknown destinations” at a net 48.9 million bushels, followed by Japan at 32.9 million and South Korea at 29.6 million bushels. Net soybean export sales during the week were a strong 89.9 million bushels for the 2025 crop, with China buying a net 47.9 million bushels, followed again by “unknown destinations” at 12.4 million bushels. USDA has now confirmed the sale of 6.734 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China in the current marketing year, or 247 million of the 441 million that we believe that China has already purchased. The week’s wheat sales totaled 22.7 million bushels of old-crop wheat, while grain sorghum sales reached a whopping 20.7 million bushels, with the bulk of those going to China.

Bitter cold temperatures are beginning to spill south across the country, which will create a massive winter storm this weekend, stretching from the central and southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, bringing a severe ice storm to much of the South and heavy snows to the north of that. Grain and livestock transportation will come to a halt in many areas, while livestock productivity will fall, along with ethanol production, due to the adverse weather. Any wheat not covered with at least 4” of snow will be susceptible to damage from the extreme cold.

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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