Perspective: Morning Commentary January 5

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 05 Jan 2026, 14:47

Today's Perspective Video: Taiwan Showdown: Crisis Averted or Commodity Market Risk Ahead?

January 5 – The return to some sense of normalcy begins today as traders return to Wall Street following an extended holiday break, while they begin to look ahead to Friday’s monthly jobs report and to this month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee to discuss rate cuts. It’s a new year with a series of new tax incentives kicking in to jumpstart the economy, even as investors weigh the implications of this weekend’s military action in Venezuela that resulted in the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. Stock futures traded both sides of unchanged this morning in relatively quiet trade, while the VIX traded near 15 and the dollar index traded near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%. Crude oil prices were roughly 1% higher overnight, while the grain and oilseed markets were mostly higher as well.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is expected to in a New York City courtroom this morning to hear the charges against him after he was pulled from his fortified home by U.S. forces over the weekend. He is being charged with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy and weapons charges. President Trump reported this weekend that the United States is involved in running the country currently while a transfer of power takes place. Much of the news reporting has focused on the drug charges, as well as on Venezuela’s vast oil reserves – 300+ billion barrels of proven crude oil, more than any other country on earth. It’s oil exports continue to be sanctioned, with China the largest importer of the oil via shadow fleets. Eventually that oil now becomes more readily available to the world as private companies are again able to repair and develop the infrastructure again, but that will take time as the politics of the country take shape. Venezuela is also an importer of U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, soybean oil and soybean meal.

China is the bigger story here, in my opinion. Venezuela is part of our proxy war on China. President Trump does not want to go to war with China, but he does want to contain China – especially its influence in the Western Hemisphere. China has invested a great deal in Latin America, seeking to establish a clear presence in the Americas. It invested heavily in a Peruvian port that opened recently, while it is currently involved in the planning, development and construction of a major rail line connecting the port to eastern Brazil for the transport of commodities. It also sought to establish a presence in Venezuela, helping to keep its economy afloat in exchange for cheap oil from that country, while giving China a presence in the Caribbean Sea just to our south. In fact, a high-level team of Chinese dignitaries met with Maduro in Venezuela just hours before his capture. We have now essentially shut off that supply of cheap oil to China while making it more challenging to establish a presence there.

But a bigger question being discussed in China today is, does this speed up the timetable for China to “reunify” Taiwan? An accelerated timetable for action by China against Taiwan remains one of the greatest potential risks for trade with China – both for our imports of its consumer products and for our exports of raw commodities to it. It’s a risk that we at the very least must respect, and factor into our risk analysis for 2026. The strike on Venezuela adds to our tensions with China, but I continue to see both leaders seeking to not escalate more than necessary for the time being apart from the Taiwan issue. The current thinking therefore is that President Xi Jinping does not send troops into Taiwan as long as President Trump does not send troops – for longer-term control – into Venezuela. The need for Trump to do so, or lack thereof, is likely determined by how well he can manage a transition of power that maintains peace on the streets of Venezuela.

Grain, oilseed, and energy prices are bouncing to start the week, after the grain and oilseeds came under considerable selling pressure in thin holiday trading conditions in recent sessions. This morning’s weekly export sales report released by USDA covers the week ending December 25, so its Thursday morning report should get the agency caught up following the partial government shutdown in October and November. Sales were disappointing overall in the report, although that’s not unheard of this time of year. China offered 7.3 million bushels of wheat from its reserves to test the market. If that goes well, it is estimated that it could release up to a billion bushels in total in auctions in the months ahead from 2017 – 2020 to make room to rotate in newer supplies this year. Much of that wheat is believed to be feed quality, which could pressure domestic corn prices. China also has vast rice supplies that could also be released if deemed necessary for feeding. Yet, that does open the door for the possibility of increased quality wheat imports for blending purposes. Otherwise, soybean harvest is slowly gaining momentum in Brazil, with the first significant shipments expected to reach China in March. USDA will release its largest data dump of the year next Monday, including revised production estimates for 2025.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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