Perspective: Morning Commentary March 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 10 Mar 2026, 13:34

March 10 – Hopes for an early end to the Iran war calmed nerves somewhat on Wall Street over the past 24 hours. Stock futures were again down overnight, but the losses paled compared to previous overnight selling in recent days. The VIX is trading near 25 this morning, but that’s well below the 35 high for yesterday’s session, set in Sunday night’s big selloff. The dollar index is trading near 98.7 this morning, after failing to test the 100 level on Monday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.12%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.55%. Crude oil prices are trading near $89 per barrel this morning, which is more than $30 off yesterday’s high. The grain and oilseed markets are trading mixed in early trade, after initially coming under pressure overnight.

President Trump described the Iran war on Monday as “very complete, pretty much” as he discussed how the United States is reaching its objectives ahead of schedule in the conflict. The United States continues to operate in concert with Israel in striking military and nuclear targets within Iran, keeping the pressure on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Trump also refused to accept Iran’s choice of Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader to replace his father who was killed in the initial strike on the country. Both Israel and the United States want to do all that they can to reduce the risk of a resurgence of the regime that has taken thousands of lives over the year via Iran’s proxy groups that it finances, while also seeking to eliminate the nuclear threat of Iran once and for all that it has been trying to build for decades. Both countries take very seriously the threats emerging from Iran over the past 47 years to destroy them.

Not much has changed, outside of Trump’s comments. Iran’s appointment of its new supreme leader is seen as an act of defiance. It continues to threaten to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as long as the U.S. – Israeli strikes continue. The two countries have dramatically reduced Iran’s ability to strike other countries in the region, but it still can do so as long as a single missile or drone can get through to create havoc. It’s doubtful that Iran has ever fully had the capacity to block the Strait of Hormuz with a blockade, through which 20 million barrels of crude and products passed each day. But it effectively did so with fear, creating enough of a threat to send insurance prices surging high enough to effectively shut it down. Only a few tankers have dared to traverse the Strait – largely Chinese flagged ships. Hundreds of ships are now trapped inside the Strait or in congestion just outside the Strait. Saudi Arabia can move about 5 million barrels per day across the peninsula by pipeline, but many of the ships needed to haul that crude oil are still tied up at the Strait. Freight rates are surging amid the lack of ships available elsewhere due to the congestion. Panic that the Strait might be closed for a long time sent crude oil prices to nearly four-year highs Sunday night, but President Trump’s comments eased those worries somewhat on Monday. The United States has committed to escorting ships through the Strait while assisting with insurance coverage, which it will be able to do once those military assets are no longer needed in the war effort. That wouldn’t totally restore passage, as there is a limit to how many ships can be escorted each day, but it would ease market worries. Trump’s comments raise hopes that the Strait will open sooner rather than later. I anticipate that the United States will first focus on securing Kharg Island, from where up to 90% of Iran’s exports flow, before the Revolutionary Guard has a chance to destroy that production capability. Regardless, the hope is that oil will start flowing relatively soon, along with the massive amounts of fertilizer that need to flow through the Strait to the rest of the world as well.

China’s exports rose 21.8% year-on-year in January and February. It always releases data for the first two months together, since its lengthy Lunar New Year Holiday always falls at some point during the two months, but at different times each year. Exports to the United States were down 11% on the year, but shipments to ASEAN nations jumped 29.4%, although many of those were likely transshipments destined for the United States. Chinese imports were also up 19.8% year-on-year, although the previous year’s numbers provided a low base. Ironically, these impressive export and import numbers from the government don’t match up well with other internal economic data. Soybean imports in January and February totaled 12.55 million metric tons, down 7.8% on the year and 1.5 mmt below the five-year average for the period. It was the second lowest level after the 2018-19 period. That was during the Trump 1.0 trade war, but it was also a time of very low soybean need due to African Swine Fever wiping out over half of China’s hog herd at the time.

USDA is scheduled to release its March WASDE crop report at Noon Eastern Time today. We typically do not see big adjustments in the March WASDE report, other than occasionally shifts in South American corn and soybean production. Otherwise, the focus is on when we see the EPA release its final biofuel guidelines, which could be as early as Friday, and on the March 31 USDA quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

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Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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