Perspective: Morning Commentary March 18

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 18 Mar 2026, 13:50

Today's Perspective Video: Strait of Hormuz Closure Ripples Through Crop Markets

March 18 – Stock futures came under added pressure this morning as crude oil prices rose, and hotter than expected inflation data pushed Treasury yields higher. The VIX rose to trade near 24 this morning, although it has since dropped back below 23, while the dollar index traded near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.22%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.72%. Crude oil prices are trading near $99 this morning, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed to higher in early trade.

The headline producer price index revealed that inflation at the wholesale level rose 0.7% month-on-month in February, up from 0.5% the previous month, and well above analyst expectations of 0.3% inflation. The headline PPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in February, up from 2.9% in January. Core PPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose 0.5% month-on-month in February, down from 0.8% in January, but above expectations of 0.3%. But the number that perhaps captured the most attention was the core PPI that came in at 3.9% year-on-year in February, up from 3.6% in January. The PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% and 3.5% month-on-month and year-on-year, up from 0.3% and 3.4% respectively. The greatest upward inflation pressures came in the services sector, which rose 0.5% on the month, and 3.8% on the year in February, whereas the PPI for goods rose 1.1% on the month and 2.5% on the year. The year-on-year rate at 2.5% for goods is good news, since February of last year came prior to the reciprocal tariffs announced on “Liberation Day.” However, the 1.1% month-on-month rate is a bit concerning, and something that we’ll need to watch to see if it forms a trend toward higher inflation. All of these numbers represent inflation at the wholesale level, which often makes it to the consumer level. The consumer inflation rate has been trending lower in recent months, while the PPI has been trending higher, and of course the Iran war is expected to compound that problem.

The Federal Open Market Committee will complete two days of meetings today. It was not expected to make any changes to its benchmark interest rate at this meeting as it continues to balance inflation risks versus some softness in the jobs market. The jobs numbers do not demand a rate cut at this time, and frankly I don’t think that they would respond to a rate cut at this point. The reason for the soft jobs market, in my opinion, has more to do with “uncertainty” in the economy that continues to hold back employers from filling open positions, as well as some restructuring of our economy due to artificial intelligence. But the Fed certainly isn’t expected to cut rates during the Iran war, due to escalating inflation fears due to higher commodity prices, and it also isn’t expected to cut rates ahead of the exit of Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed in May. However, today’s numbers, combined with the Iran war impacts, may lead to some mention of higher rate risks down the road, and that is certainly something that investors will be watching for when the policy statement is released at 2 p.m. Eastern time today, followed by Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later.

Crude oil prices pushed closer to that psychological $100 mark again overnight as the war in Iran continues, and fuel shortages in the Asian market continue to mount. Both the WTI and Brent crude markets are oriented more toward the American and North Atlantic supply and demand fundamentals. The United States is largely independent, other than many of its refineries are designed to process heavy crude rather than the light crude coming from its shale oil fields. Nonetheless, many of the Asian markets are dependent on Middle East oil – much of which traditionally moves through the Strait of Hormuz. China has vast reserves of oil that it has filled in recent months and years, so it shouldn’t be a problem for China for a while. Yet many other Asian customers are running short on fuel, including key fuel depots that refuel ships. Singapore in particular is said to be running short of fuel, prioritizing high value cargo ships according to reports, at the expense of dry bulk carriers. Many carriers are shifting to the Atlantic basin to carry freight, where fuel is still more readily available, albeit at a higher cost. Many of these freight carriers, as well as the major airlines, ignored opportunities to hedge fuel supplies when prices were near multi-year lows earlier this year, and are thus in a position where they will need to pass along their costs, contributing to what is expected to be higher inflation data for March, April, and perhaps beyond.

The commodity sector with the highest correlation to inflation over the past 10 years, according to our StoneX commodity index tracker, is the grain and oilseed sector at 0.88, followed closely by energy at 0.83. Thus, we’ve generally seen positive money flow into the grain and oilseed sector when inflation expectations rise, as they have been, while the money flow reverses when those expectations pull back. The other factor that we’re seeing this week is a shift to buying of new-crop soybeans to “buy” acres for feedstock for biomass diesel production to meet the anticipated 2027 RVO requirements, which is also providing modest support for deferred corn prices as well.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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