Perspective: Morning Commentary March 5

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 05 Mar 2026, 13:54

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

March 5 - Dow Jones Industrials rebounded yesterday from a 6+ week low but futures are indicating a minor retreat back towards that bottom today. There was talk of Iranian leaders reaching out to Trump regarding a ceasefire yesterday but violence did not back off overnight. Jobless claims came in near expectations this morning and will push the trade’s attention off to month figures tomorrow AM, with the U.S. labor market stable/stagnant. Treasury yields are moving higher this morning across the curve, with the 10-year up more than five basis points to 4.136%, with the dollar rebounding slightly as well and moving back towards Monday’s high.

The sixth day of the war in the Middle East has brought zero let-up, with Israel reporting hits overnight in a wave of airstrikes on Tehran, while Iran continues to retaliate not just against Israel but the entire Middle East. They did deny drone hits on an airport in Azerbaijan and on a U.S. warship near Sri Lanka. The U.S. continues to bombard Iran, damaging the Iranian Air Force HQ overnight along with other military and leadership sites, with the death toll there at “at least” 1,230. Plans from the U.S. administration and President Trump continue to vary concerning the scope and timetable of the war, as action surges ahead and more U.S. troops and resources are deployed.

Chinese stock markets responded positively overnight to rhetoric from the Two Sessions meetings, though surprises appear to be largely absent from their five-year plan. They did soften their GDP growth target from “around 5%” to 4.5%-5.0%, indicating a bit more practicality in their approach during an unpredictable global span. They left goals for inflation (2%), employment, and national deficit unchanged as well; agricultural goals appeared modest as well, calling for the usual improvements in technology and infrastructure, improving safeguards for agricultural production and national food security. Grain traders and the overall marketplace continue to look forward to U.S.-China trade talks that are scheduled for March 31-April 2 in Beijing.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 roughly matched trade expectations at 213k (the trade guess was 215k) and did exactly match the week prior, which was revised higher by 1k from the previous week. Continuing claims for the week to Feb 21 beat the average 1845k trade estimate at 1868k, well above 1822k the previous week (which was revised lower from 1833k). The U.S. labor market continues to operate in a low-firing environment, following some distorted data post-government shutdown and through the holiday and winter weather periods. The government employment report tomorrow is expected to moderated hiring in Feb (only a +55k) after a strong reading in Jan (+130k), with the unemployment rate seed steady month-over-month at 4.3%. January import prices again rose 0.2% MoM, the same number as December and a tick below the average trade guess; import prices without petroleum also fell a tick short of expectations at +0.4%. Export prices rose 0.6% in January, well above the 0.2% average trade guess, with that Dec reading revised higher from 0.3% to 0.6% as well.

WTI crude oil surged back up to new move highs just before midnight last night, after see-sawing off Monday’s top; oil is now at the highest level since last June, and near its highest in just over a year. Hundreds of oil tankers remain parked near the Strait of Hormuz with only a few rogue or Chinese-marked vessels daring to pass – a Bahamas-flagged crude oil tanker was attacked overnight. Even if ships could pass, insurers are balking on covering their passage through a war zone, even though President Trump has offered to provide coverage to those wishing to pass. Middle East countries are cutting production, while India increases purchases of Russian crude; the Strait handles around 20% of global oil supplies.

The grain markets followed the lead of WTI crude oil and soybean oil overnight, with wheat chipping in decent gains as well as overall global market volatility continues. A strong U.S. corn export program remains with U.S. exporters reporting sales of almost 80 million bushels of corn on the week ending 2/26, above even the most optimistic 63.0 mbu trade estimate. Cumulative sales are now up to 2.558 billion bu, more than 600 mbu ahead of last year and 4% ahead of the USDA’s export estimate on a seasonal basis. The USDA has continually pumped up their 2025/26 corn export estimate to a record 3.3 bln bu, but may still be too low; that at least covers some of a massively-overinflated feed use expectation for the current marketing year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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