Perspective: Morning Commentary November 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 13 Nov 2025, 14:35

November 13 – The government is back open again for the first time since September 30. It will take some time for the data to flow once again, but at least we know that it is coming. Stock futures pulled modestly lower overnight, while the VIX consolidated near 18. The dollar index is trading near 99.3, reflecting a two-week low. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.60%. Crude oil prices slipped briefly to fresh three-week lows before rallying to nearly 1% gains as selling interest dried up near $58 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was mixed ahead of the pause, with soybean prices surging to new highs for the move ahead of tomorrow’s USDA data dump, while corn and wheat prices continued to struggle.

The agreement reached with China in late October is seen as more of a de-escalation than an actual trade agreement. Yes, both sides agreed to various terms that one could call a trade agreement, but we still lack specifics on long-term changes to trading patterns. Rather, this continues to look like an attempt to de-escalate things. Ironically, the agreement came following a period when there were considerable questions on whether President Xi would even agree to meet with President Trump when they both attended the APEC conference in South Korea. President Xi appeared quite confident in escalating tensions when it totally closed the door to rare earth mineral and magnet exports the first week of October – not just to the United States, but to much of the rest of the world as well. President Xi displayed a level of confidence that said, now is the time to start picking global winners and losers in who can have a healthy manufacturing sector, and who can have a strong military with advanced defense weapons. That was a bold step that he took.

President Trump quickly responded to Xi’s actions by threatening an additional 100% tariff on all goods coming from China starting November 1 if China refused to withdraw its export restrictions on rare earths. I’ve previously outlined how this was a national security issue for the United States, and for many other western countries as well. President Trump admitted in an interview that the 100% additional tariffs were not sustainable, but he stayed with the threat as we approached the end of October. That reflected the gravity of what China had done.

Then came the Fourth Plenum meeting in China. This event, held every five years, is not just a strategic planning retreat. It is a major political event for the Chinese Communist Party. This is the event where party leaders assess where the country is headed, and any course corrections that they want to make. That includes removing old leaders who no longer have their support, while installing new leaders to provide a fresh approach. Rumors circulated regarding attempts to remove Xi from office, but we remained confident that he would remain in power. Yet, the four days of meetings would certainly give Xi Jinping a sense of the strength of his power base. A strong power base might embolden him to take a strong stance against President Trump – possibly not even meeting with him in South Korea. But any signs of weakness might lead him to seek a quick agreement to calm the international waters so that he can focus on rebuilding support at home.

We got an agreement. That doesn’t mean that Xi’s long-term objectives have change, nor have the long-term objectives of the CCP changed. Both still fully intend to topple the United States from its position of having the top economy and the top military in the world, while displacing the dollar with the yuan as the global currency of choice. That hasn’t changed. But China plays the long-game, and it knows that President Trump is only a short-timer in the United States. Everything could change next November if he loses Congress. So, it made short-term concessions to calm the waters, easing stress at home, while keeping the long-term objectives in sight. As such, China’s central bank looks to hold off anticipated rate cuts until the first quarter of 2026 as it pulls back from its stimulus mode into more of a stability mode amid China’s massive growing debt problem. This comes at a time when there are signs that the impact of stimulus programs on consumer spending is starting to wane.

USDA released its weekly export sales report for the week ending September 25 this morning. It says that it will release more data tomorrow morning. USDA released a massive data dump of total sales occurring during the shutdown in one report the last time we went through this, but we still lack official word on whether that will be how it handles things following this record long shutdown. Regardless, USDA will release its November WASDE crop report tomorrow. Soybean prices surged to fresh 16-month highs early this morning as traders gambled on the risk that USDA could release a bullish crop report tomorrow. Market observers are debating on whether that was speculative buying, or China’s state grain buyer providing the early session pop. Production estimates ahead of tomorrow’s report vary by 268 million bushels for soybeans and 368 million bushels for corn.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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