Perspective: Morning Commentary November 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 24 Nov 2025, 14:47

November 24 – Stock futures firmed overnight as investor hopes for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve rise once again. Yet, the VIX remains elevated near 22 amid the unease on Wall Street, while the dollar index trades near 100.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.05%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.51%. Crude oil prices bounced off Friday’s one-month lows early this morning, and are trading near unchanged currently, while the grain and oilseed complex was mostly in the red overnight. The tide has switched to where it’s become more difficult for commodity prices to rally on good news in the current elevated fear ecosystem.

China’s People’s Liberation Army continues to run intensive military drills in the Western Pacific between Mainland China and the Korean Peninsula in response to Japan’s recently voiced support for Taiwan. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi shocked many world leaders when she announced soon after taking office that Japan would stand by Taiwan with military assistance if necessary. That triggered an angry response from China, which resents anyone siding with Taiwan’s claims of independence from the mainland. China immediately “discouraged” its citizens from traveling to Japan, which resulted in a sharp reduction in passenger travel. It also took other steps to reduce trade with Japan, while ramping up military activity in the region. Japan refused to back down, with the U.S. ambassador to Japan publicly expressing full support for Japan. Furthermore, the U.S. Senate sent a bill to President Trump’s desk relaxing restrictions on official engagements with Taiwan that had been in place for 40 years originally meant to appease China. That means that Chinese officials will be watching closely to see if Trump signs the bill, which would allow U.S. dignitaries to make regular trips to Taiwan.

All of this could blow up the commodity trade deal in process currently with U.S. negotiators. President Trump and President Xi of China reached a hand-shake agreement on trade when they met face-to-face in South Korea at the end of October. The White House stated then that the agreement included Chinese promises to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025, with another 25 mmt in each of the next three calendar years, along with other Ag commodities. The Administration said that the details of those other commodities were being worked out, with a completed deal expected to be signed the following seek. That still has not happened, although Chinese state buyers have been making some purchases. USDA Secretary Rollins stated this morning that the deal should be inked this week or next, revealing more details of anticipated purchases, but there’s good reason to be skeptical, particularly in light of the above Taiwan related developments.

Rare earth minerals and magnets continue to be a sticking point as well. I’ve previously indicated that China continues to find ways for withholding critical rare earths needed, not only for manufacturing, but also for our national defense. Europe is fighting the same battle with China, which holds a near monopoly on the supply of processed rare earth minerals. It’s one of the reasons that China has been investing in Africa, which holds an estimated 30% of the reserves of these critical minerals. China’s been offering zero tariffs to nearly every African country to strengthen its ties with these nations in an effort to build the infrastructure necessary to mine and process these minerals locally, giving it again the capacity to control who receives them. China currently produces 60% of the world’s rare earths, while controlling 90% of the supply of processed rare earth minerals. China’s unmined reserves of rare earths are estimated to be 44 mmt, or nearly half the world’s total. It controls nearly 100% of the heavy rare earth minerals of dysprosium and terbium. A peace agreement in Ukraine could give U.S. access to its rare earth mineral supply, which is estimated at roughly 5% of world reserves, although some minerals critical to national defense objectives are found there. Yet, Russia has continued to undermine any peace efforts in Ukraine ever since President Xi made a trip to Moscow earlier this year.

The economy of Lexington, Nebraska took a hit Friday afternoon when Tyson announced that it would close its beef packing plant there in January, while it will reduce operations at an Amarillo, Texas plant from two shifts down to one. The two reductions should take away 7 – 8% of our U.S. packing capacity, although we should have enough capacity elsewhere to absorb the harvest activities for now. Other plants are expected to rise from 80% of capacity up to 90% to absorb the cattle not being processed by these two plants. Keep in mind that cattle inventories are at a 74-year low currently, and Nebraska had the greatest amount of capacity, resulting in plants paying up to protect market share. The loss of a plant reduces that competition for a smaller number of cattle, which will likely reduce the cash market in the northern feedlot region. We could also see an uptick in beef prices as a result. Yet, overall harvest capacity should continue to be there until we reap the benefits of a rebuilt breeding herd several years from now, which is when we could run into some capacity shortfalls.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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