Perspective: Morning Commentary November 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 03 Nov 2025, 14:33

Today's Perspective Video: We Have a Deal With China!

November 3 – It’s day #34 of the partial government shutdown, with stock futures mixed this morning as they continue to consolidate just below last week’s new record highs. The VIX is trading just above 17, while the dollar index is trading near 100.0 as it trades at new three-month highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.61%. Crude oil prices are mixed as they continue to consolidate above $60 per barrel, while the grain and oilseed was mostly higher on China trade deal optimism and chart-related buying.

Everyone agrees that we have a trade deal with China. There doesn’t seem to be any dispute about that. What is odd is that most of the information we have about the deal is coming from the White House, with Chinese authorities saying very little. They’re not disputing what the White House is releasing, but rather they’re simply not confirming any of the details, nor has China removed the retaliatory tariffs necessary for private crushers to purchase U.S. soybeans. That has crushers continuing to purchase Brazilian soybeans, while remaining absent from the U.S. market. Some U.S. soybeans are being purchased, but those purchases are assumed to be by China’s state grain buyer Sinograin, which is essentially immune to the tariffs. Sinograin typically purchases for China’s reserves. Those reserves can then be auctioned off to private crushers. Time is of the essence though if we’re going to ship 12 million metric tons of soybeans to China in the next 60 days, and China appears to be dragging its feet.

The recent runup in U.S. soybean prices, combined with a 25-cent per bushel drop in Brazilian basis, now makes Brazilian soybeans purchased for December delivery cheaper than U.S. soybeans again, even if the China takes off the retaliatory tariffs. But retaliatory tariffs make them several dollars per bushel more expense. That would definitely dictate that we can only expect Sinograin to be a buyer for the time being. There’s also evidence that Chinese buyers have been shopping for U.S. wheat in recent days, although again, China needs to remove the retaliatory tariffs to facilitate private purchases. Unfortunately, confirmation of purchases is lacking during the government shutdown, with no daily flash sales or weekly export sales reports being released.

Rare earth minerals and magnets will continue to be the number one point of contention between China and much of the western world. The Trump Administration is rapidly signing agreements with both the private sector as well as other countries to increase the supply of processed rare earth minerals and magnets available, but it will take time to see the fruit of that work. It may take several years to see supplies sufficiently increased for some of the critical minerals, while others could come quite a bit quicker. China agreed to suspend its restrictions on the exports of these products for one year, but China’s track record at keeping its agreements suggest that this may be the area most vulnerable to it violating the agreement. Considering the sensitivity of the issue, any restrictions in the flow of rare earth minerals and magnets would likely result in a quick response from President Trump to escalate tariffs once again for national security reasons. This will be an area to monitor.

China’s population is aging. Chinese data shows that 20 of China’s 31 mainland provinces have more than 20% of their population older than 60 years, with more than 14% above 65 years of age. Just 7 provinces could make that claim in 2018. This means that China’s population is rapidly aging amid its low birth rate. That is expected to accelerate China’s economic slowdown in the years ahead. China’s response to it is to encourage a higher birthrate, but it’s had limited success in doing so at this point, partially due to disparity among China’s youth. As such, Chinese authorities are seeking to support the economy through innovation – improving productivity and efficiency through automation and robots, integrated with artificial intelligence.

USDA announced that it will release its November crop production estimates and November WASDE supply and demand balance sheets, regardless of the government shutdown. However, those reports will be released on November 14 instead of the previously scheduled November 10. Most of this year’s crops are harvested, meaning that USDA will be basing its production estimates primarily on farmer surveys. It will then get the chance to check those against the results of its quarterly stocks survey on December 1, assuming that the government is open by then for it to conduct that survey. That said, it will be good to see USDA’s official production estimates at the end of next week. It will leave us vulnerable to a big correction if its estimates vary notably from the private estimates guiding the market currently, but USDA’s numbers will be what the market trades. StoneX is currently collecting customer responses to its monthly survey, to be tabulated and released this afternoon to update our production estimates, with other private estimates coming out in the days that follow.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.