Perspective: Morning Commentary September 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 16 Sep 2025, 13:29

Today's Perspective Video: Will We See A Trade Deal with China?

September 16 – The Federal Open Market Committee – the policy branch of the Federal Reserve – begins two days of meetings today, with all of Wall Street and Washington absolutely convinced that they will end with a rate cut tomorrow afternoon. Wall Street also took note that an apparent framework agreement has been reached with China for the transfer of ownership of TikTok, which means that the two powers can reach agreements when they want to do so. Both the Nasdaq and S&P stock futures indices pushed into record territory overnight, although they pulled back from those highs this morning, despite better-than-expected August retail sales data. The VIX is trading just below 16 this morning, while the dollar index fell to fresh 10-week lows to trade near 97.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.05%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.53%. The commodity sector garnered support from the weaker dollar, with crude oil prices 1% higher, and the grain and oilseed sector higher as well in overnight trade.

Retail sales rose 0.6% on the month in August, matching the upwardly revised pace of the previous month, but twice analyst expectations of 0.3% growth. Retail sales minus vehicles rose 0.7%, up from 0.4% the previous month, and exceeding analyst expectations of 0.4%. Retail sales minus both vehicles and gas also rose 0.7% on the month, up from 0.3% the previous month. Keep in mind that this retail sales data is based on value of transactions rather than quantity of product purchased. As such, inflation does increase retail sales data. That said, data released this morning showed that import prices rose 0.3% on the month in August, down from 0.4% gains in July, but exceeding the -0.2% expected by analysts. Import prices were flat year-on-year in August. On the other hand, export prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, while rising 3.4% year-on-year.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated Monday that a framework agreement has been reached with China to resolve issues over TikTok. The United States has concerns about security as long as the popular App is owned and managed by China. Bessent hinted in his comments that the agreement would “switch to U.S. controlled ownership,” although that is not yet confirmed. More details are expected to emerge following a call between China’s President Xi and U.S. President Trump on Friday. In a related matter, it appears that U.S. officials are softening their tone regarding Beijing’s purchases of Russian energy. Trump had been calling for the G7 group of nations to impose immediate 50 – 100% secondary tariffs on China for those purchases, but Bessent stated that the United States won’t hit China with the tariffs unless the European Union acts first to do so.

There has thus far been no mention of soybeans or any other commodities being a part of the negotiations, which are continuing today. The start of the soybean marketing year on September 1 typically marks the start of the U.S. export campaign to supply China with soybeans through January or February, when cheaper new crop Brazilian supplies would begin to arrive. The five-year average for Chinese commitments for U.S. soybeans already on the books by the first week of September is just shy of 400 million bushels. Yet, zero commitments are on the books thus far this year. Meanwhile, China has already committed to accept shipment of 625 million bushels of South American soybeans over the next several months. Arrivals from South America at Chinese ports are expected to top 360 million bushels both this month and next. Brazil’s ANEC believes that Brazil still has nearly 590 million bushels of exportable supplies between October and December. There are also rumors in China’s cash market that the government may release between 110 million and 185 million bushels of soybeans from its reserves over the next several months to help fill the gap ahead of Brazilian new-crop supplies arriving early next year. That makes it physically possible for China to avoid imports from the United States as long as Brazil’s growing season gets off to a good start in the weeks ahead to supply sufficient quantities in 2026.

China continued to increase stimulus via issued government bonds as it continues to push money into China’s economy. China increased bonds by 1.37 trillion yuan ($192 billion) in August, up 9.5% on the month, but down 15.5% year-on-year. China issued 10.27 trillion yuan in bonds ($1.44 trillion) in the first eight months of the year, compared to 5.6 trillion ($787 billion) last year. M1 money supply rose nearly 6% year-on-year in August, up from 5.6% in July. M2 money supply rose 8.8% year-on-year in August, unchanged from July. Look for China to take a conservative approach to negotiations until it hears the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on the legality of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs next month. China’s economy is hurting, but the people of China believe that President Xi is standing up to a bully who has been pushing China around, based on what they’ve been told by State media. They’re not about to give away a lot in negotiations when they might not need to give away anything if Trump loses his power to use tariffs against them.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.