Perspective: Morning Commentary September 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 29 Sep 2025, 13:48

Today's Perspective Video: U.S. Farm Sector at Risk

September 29 – It’s “jobs” week on Wall Street, in addition to seeing the end of the month and the end of the fiscal quarter tomorrow, while the Street also contemplates the possibility of a partial government shutdown tomorrow night. Stock futures pushed higher overnight in anticipation of this week’s jobs data providing support for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Remember, bad news is good news on the Street if it gets more rate cuts. As such, the VIX traded below 16 once again this morning, while the dollar index traded below 97.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.64%. Crude oil prices traded more than 2% lower overnight, after rising to seven-week highs on Friday, while the grain and oilseed sector was mostly weaker ahead of tomorrow’s set of USDA stocks and small grains summary reports.

Will we see a partial government shutdown tomorrow night? Does Wall Street care? Appropriated funding runs out for 438 government agencies at midnight tomorrow night, because Congress has not yet passed a funding measure to keep things going. All essential services will continue, which raises questions about why we’re funding government to do non-essential services. Nonetheless, Democrats and Republicans typically use this deadline as leverage to get what they want out of the appropriation process. Congress hasn’t passed a full budget appropriating funds for all areas of government since 1996 – nearly 30 years. As such, government has been funded by a series of continuing resolutions since that point. Federal workers are nearly always given back pay when the government shuts down, although workers have to make resources stretch in the meantime.

There have been 14 notable shutdowns since 1981, with most lasting no more than a day or two – maybe three. However, the last big shutdown lasted 35 days between December 2018 and January 2019. Republicans hold a narrow lead in both houses of Congress, but Senate rules require 60 votes to bring a measure to the floor. That means that Republicans need at least 7 Democrats to support bringing the funding measure to the floor, and thus far they are holding out and resisting the clean funding bill that the Republicans have offered. This leads to the question of, does Wall Street care? The markets don’t typically care unless the shutdown lasts long enough to negatively impact the economy due to federal workers cutting back spending. That 2018-2019 shutdown that furloughed an estimated 36% of federal workers cost the economy an estimated $3 billion, which was just 0.02% of the economy.

USDA announced this morning two more flash sales of corn on the export market, including another 5.3 million bushels of corn to Mexico and 4.4 million bushels to “unknown destinations.” Sales of more than 100K metric tons are required to be announced via USDA’s flash reporting system. There have been 57.5 million bushels of corn sales announced via this system over the past two weeks, with many more sales not included in the flash system. As such, known marketing year to date corn export commitments exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target by 212 million bushels, and that target is already a record high 2.975 billion bushels. On the other hand, the absence of Chinese soybean buying continues to weigh on demand for the oilseed. Marketing year to date export sales fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s current export target by 270 million bushels. As such, USDA will need to make substantial cuts to its current export target, which is already the lowest since 2019. I think it hoped that it would be making matching reductions to production to ease the impact on ending stocks, but thus far soybean yields continue to impress across much of the Midwest, including in some very dry areas. As such, we risk seeing notable increases to soybean ending stocks estimates in the October and/or November WASDE reports.

USDA releases its quarterly stocks report tomorrow, along with its small grains summary report – the final wheat production estimates of the year, along with other small grains. The stocks reports are known for their market moving surprises that often defy logic in the direction of those surprises. As such, anything is possible on stocks reports days. The monthly WASDE crop reports are projections of supply and demand, while the quarterly stocks reports are snapshots of reality on how those supply and demand estimates are truly playing out. They’re a measurement of what actually exists in the pipeline, or a fact-check of USDA’s projections and how they’re playing out. There will often times also be adjustments to the previous year’s production estimates – nearly always a reduction of production estimates. Beyond tomorrow’s reports, the focus will return to the size of this year’s crops. StoneX will release the results of its October customer survey estimating the size of this year’s corn and soybean crops on Wednesday afternoon, with other private estimates coming out in the days that follow. Corn yield results continue to confirm a smaller crop due to dryness – but mostly due to late season disease pressure. However, soybean yields continue to impress, suggesting only modest reductions, if any, in USDA’s yield estimate.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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