By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis, EMEA & Asia
Tel: +44 203 580 6115 / mobile +44 7384 833897
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion 14 April 2025
Well, that was an interesting fortnight!
Gold posts new record highs in nominal terms ($3,246), then retreats slightly.
In real terms we are, at $3,200, now 8% below the intraday high (in today’s dollar terms) of $3,486. This was a nominal $850 on 21st January 1980 amidst the second oil crisis, the Afghanistan and Iranian crises and the failed attempt of the Hunt Brothers to corner silver.
The changing policy statements from the White House have fostered continued risk-off in the investment fraternity with silver dropping by 17% between the 2nd and 7th of April before a 61% retracement to test $32.
The latter part of last week saw the markets’ influence (especially the bond market) helping to generate a softening in tone from the White House (other than with respect to China), but uncertainty persists over the level and geographical spread of any negotiations.
The exclusion of metals from tariffs (apart from S. 232 aluminium and steel – and possibly copper in the future) was widely expected, but gold continued to filter into CME vaults until 3rd April – the so-called “Liberation Day”, when they reached 1,509t or a massive 93% of open interest. The subsequent reduction in open interest means that COMEX gold inventories are at 98% of open interest in mid-April.
The Fed looks to be aiding liquidity in the markets. The FOMC had already announced a reduction in Quantitative Tightening, and our Chief Strategist has also pointed out the use of standing repo facility and a drop in reverse repo balance (see below for explanation).
Silver inventories have continued to arrive, but this may well be because the transportation time can be lengthy; currently they stand at 15,473t (equivalent to just over six months’ global fabrication demand), or 68% of open interest.
This increase in open interest cover is also more a function of reduced open interest as inventories were only dribbling higher.
The gold:silver ratio hit 103 on 4th April and is still just over 100 as the markets focus on silver’s industrial demand profile.
Gold ETFs have added 21t so far this month, including two days last week with additions of over 10t each to stand at 3,460t. World mine production is ~3,600t.
Silver ETFs were under pressure in the first week of April, but have subsequently attracted some sizeable interest, leading to a net gain of 113t so far in April.
Shorter term outlook: gold has lost its upward momentum but remains well underpinned. We continue to believe that the market is crowded and may yet be due for a further correction but expect prices to remain well-supported while the markets contend with continued uncertainty. The gold:silver ratio is likely to remain broadly steady.
The S&P/Gold ratio is recovering on the postponement of some, and deletion of some other, tariffs (notably part of the tech sector for the latter)
Source: Bloomberg
We have noted above that gold is starting – slowly - to come out of COMEX inventory. It is also worth noting that gold in London vaults, as reported monthly by the London Bullion Market Association, nudged higher by 11t in March, after a cumulative loss of 298t from November through to end-February. Gold in London vaults now amounts to 8,488t (although some of this will be ETF metal), while silver has now posted five months of losses amounting to 4,500t, standing at 22,127t at end-March.
COMEX gold inventories, tonnes
Source CME via Bloomberg, StoneX,
Gold, one-year view; still overbought, but starting to consolidate.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold in key local currencies.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Silver, March 2025 to date; recovering from a heavy fall
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold:silver ratio, January 2024 to-date; clear of 100
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
CFTC: In the week to 8th April, gold rose fractionally at the outset, to touch a high of $3,168 on the 3rd; then posted four successive days of decline (before a fresh rally to new record levels thereafter). Positions contracted in both the Managed Money longs and shorts, with the longs shedding 92t (14%) to 546t and the shorts coming down by 57t (29%) to 138t. The outright long on 8th April was below the twelve-month average by 5%.
Over the same period silver initially slipped from $34.0 to $33.3 before a precipitous fall to a low of 28.4, a drop of 17% before a recovery towards $30.5. The change in positioning saw outright longs drop by 5% or 466t while shorts gained 9% or 186t to 2,247t.
Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)
COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)
Source for both charts: CFTC, StoneX
So, what is the Fed doing and how does it work?
Quantitative tightening: not rolling over Treasuries as they mature. Buying bonds from the open market. Both of these actions would alleviate some upward pressure on bond yields.
The standing repo facility (SRF): this was implemented in July 2021. This is designed to keep monetary policy running smoothly, by limiting any overnight upward pressure on interest rates; the use of the SRF means that the Fed makes funds available to primary dealers, and some banks also, by accepting short-term high-quality US Treasuries, agency mortgage-backed securities and agency debt. The SRF can be used proactively, taking potential heat out of the markets, and is used only intermittently, in periods of financial stress.
The reverse repo rate is used to keep the fed funds target rate in the band specified by the Fed. In a repo, the Fed’s open Market Trading Desk (“The Desk”) buys securities from a counterparty with an agreement to resell at a later date. In a reverse repo the Desk sells securities to a counterparty with an agreement to repurchase at a later date. A reverse repo thus reduces the supply of reserves in the system.
And what is the EFP and how does it work?
How does it work? Trading the EFP is a way of hedging market exposure. By buying the EFP, a holder of physical metal contracts with a counterparty to sell the physical position while simultaneously buying the futures. That way the exposure in the metal itself is unchanged, but the delivery date shifts. Some market stakeholders had been using the EFP to deliver metal into the United States ahead of 2nd April to reduce the risk attached to long positions in case of tariff imposition. We were correct in our view that we would not see tariffs on either metal, but it is understandable that some traders – or their risk officers (as was the case during the pandemic) wanted to eliminate any possibility of being caught up in any fall-out.
|
|
15 April 2025 |
Previous week |
% change |
Year-to-date |
Range Jan 2024 onwards |
|
Range as % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
|
|
Gold (pm LBMA price) |
3,204.20 |
3,014.75 |
6.28% |
21.08% |
1,985.10 |
3,230.50 |
62.74% |
|
Silver (LBMA price) |
32.28 |
30.33 |
6.43% |
9.74% |
22.09 |
34.51 |
56.26% |
|
Platinum (pm LBMA price) |
950.00 |
920.00 |
3.26% |
3.15% |
913.00 |
1,065.00 |
16.65% |
|
Palladium (pm LBMA price) |
949.00 |
914.00 |
3.83% |
3.04% |
852.00 |
1,222.00 |
43.43% |
|
S&P 500 |
5,405.97 |
5,062.25 |
6.79% |
-8.48% |
4,845.65 |
6,144.15 |
26.80% |
|
$:€ |
1.1351 |
1.0912 |
4.02% |
9.06% |
1.0244 |
1.1355 |
10.85% |
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Gold's breakout has landed in a month that history has repeatedly favored, and the seasonal record stretching back to 2000 helps explain why. A closer look at August returns, win rates and how the calendar shifts into September shows where the seasonal edge is strongest and where it fades.
Silver's push above its summer range has less to do with supply and more to do with a single diplomatic thread. A potential U.S.-Iran deal has become the swing factor for a breakout that is far from confirmed.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
