By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion 24 June 2024
Outlook; geopolitical risk continues to support gold prices, although silver has suffered a little from the easing in the base metals prices last week amid continued uncertainty over the European and Chinese economies. With the quarter-end approaching there may be some position-squaring, which could put prices under light pressure, but the fundamentals remain positive for both gold and silver overall.
Gold, silver and the ratio, January 2023-to-date
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Not to put too fine a point on it, gold and silver trading patterns have been, in the words of one of our dealers last week, “boring”. The Fed ‘s attitude towards data-dependence with respect to rates policy means that we shouldn’t expect anything from them in the near future, and the fed funds markets are now ascribing a 61% probability of a rate hike in September and an 89% chance of a further cut in December; leading to an implied rate of 4.86% in December (currently 5.50%). A number of observers think that there will be only one cut this year, however, which is almost certainly contributing to the stagnation in the market.
Bond markets’ expectations for the rate cycle; now looking at a 61% chance of a September cut
Source: Bloomberg
Backing this up is the fact that the recorded daily averages for the active COMEX gold contract were 18% lower than the daily average in the first half of the month.
At the fundamental level, the Indian south-west monsoon season is late this year with precipitation reportedly down by 20% in the first half of June by comparison with the norm. This can be significant for the gold market in particular (silver to a lesser extent) as over 40% of the Indian population works in the agricultural sector and roughly 60% of the Indian population overall is dependent on it. A large number of Indian farmers have a degree of mistrust of the banking system and gold tends to be one of their first purchases after the harvest (it is no coincidence that Akshaya Tritiya and Diwali follow closely on the two harvest seasons in India) and a reduced harvest may well affect purchases. The Minimum Support Price (MSP - the minimum prices that the Government will pay farmers for their different crops) was set last week for Kharif crops for the marketing season 2024-2025 and, depending on the crop, is anything from 50% to 77% over the farmers’ costs. For the majority it is a margin of 50%.
Source: Indian Meteorological Bureau
Looking retrospectively the latest trade figures from the Swiss Federal Customs Office show a rise in net imports of gold to 61.8t, which reflects some (but not much) price-elastic selling as the price scaled new record highs. Germany and the United States were also net sellers; while this is not unusual for the States, Germany has been a net seller for the 13 of the past 15 months, for a total of 47.5t (monthly average of 3.7t). This compares with a monthly average net import into Germany of 4.9tpm from January 2021 to December 2022. China continued to take in metal with a net import of 36t, right in line with the monthly average since January 2021, while Indian net imports slowed.
Looking to the economic and political elements surrounding the market, the Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) for leading EU countries were released at the end of last week and in the main they were disappointing. For the euro area as a whole, the S&P Global PMI fell to 50.8, although at above 50, this is still in positive territory. Eurozone manufacturing, however, at 45.6 (down from 47.3) and the Manufacturing PMI Output Index, at 46.0 (from 40.3), were both at six-month lows, partly reflecting nervousness over the outcome of the French election following the European Parliament elections that saw a move to the right (but not as far as had been expected) in Germany, France and Italy. This has prompted renewed expectations for another rate cut from the ECB and the European bond markets have already priced in one further 25-point cut this year.
This week sees, inter alia, US Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), Japan retail sales, China industrial profits, Eurozone economic confidence, US durable goods, GDP (all Thursday), and France, Italy Spain CPI, US PCE Inflation (Friday).
Four US Fed Presidents are due to speak during the week.
EU Consumer Confidence China Consumer Confidence
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
In the background the gold Exchange Traded Products went into reverse. In the first half of June (after a net gain of 8.2t in May) the gold ETFs added 4.7t, but subsequently shed 12.7t in just five days, before a sizeable increase of 7.2t last Friday 21st June. That gives a year-to—date fall of 136.1t to 3,089.6t (world mine production is roughly 3,700tpa).
COMEX
The past week’s COMEX numbers are not yet available as last Monday was a public holiday in the States.
Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)
Source: CFTC, StoneX
COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)
Source: CFTC, StoneX
|
|
24 June 2024 |
Previous week |
% change |
Year-to-date |
Range Jan 2022 onwards |
|
Range as % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
|
|
Gold (pm LBMA price) |
2,335.05 |
2,330.45 |
0.20% |
12.94% |
1,628.75 |
2,427.30 |
49.03% |
|
Silver (LBMA price) |
30.44 |
29.21 |
4.19% |
27.10% |
21.06 |
32.01 |
52.03% |
|
Platinum (pm LBMA price) |
998.00 |
949.00 |
5.16% |
1.01% |
850.00 |
1,065.00 |
25.29% |
|
Palladium (pm LBMA price) |
991.00 |
890.00 |
11.35% |
-9.99% |
872.00 |
1,324.00 |
51.83% |
|
S&P 500 |
5,464.62 |
5,433.74 |
0.57% |
14.57% |
4,117.37 |
5,487.03 |
33.27% |
|
$:€ |
1.0693 |
1.0703 |
-0.09% |
-3.19% |
1.0467 |
1.1201 |
7.01% |
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Gold's breakout has landed in a month that history has repeatedly favored, and the seasonal record stretching back to 2000 helps explain why. A closer look at August returns, win rates and how the calendar shifts into September shows where the seasonal edge is strongest and where it fades.
Silver's push above its summer range has less to do with supply and more to do with a single diplomatic thread. A potential U.S.-Iran deal has become the swing factor for a breakout that is far from confirmed.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
