By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Gold prices have ticked up a little at the start of this week, having drifted lower in both dollar and euro terms last week, whole holding steady in Swiss francs and eking out minor gains in yen. The markets were concentrating on bond yields for much of last week and Jay Powell’s biannual testimony to Congress, while more or less the same as the FOMC statement and his comments in his Press Conference (2% inflation is still the target but may take a very long while to get there) kept prices under pressure. Mr. Powell clearly implied that there would be another two hikes this year, while Christine Lagarde at the ECB made it clear that, unlike the Fed, the ECB is not contemplating “pausing” as inflation is still too high and has been for too long. Hikes also came from the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Norwegian central bank.
The absence of China from the markets at the end of the week (Dragon Boat holidays) will almost certainly have exacerbated the price weakness. There were five successive days of losses, the sharpest of which was the third one, when gold dropped from $1,957 to $1,930, with the move amplified by technical chart-related issues, with spot crossing below the ten-day and 20-day moving averages at $1,950. At the start of this week, after testing $1,920, spot is rising to challenge the resistance offered by the ten-day moving average at $1,940.
Spot gold, technical
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Over the week-end the “mutiny” in Russia, while short-lived (thus far at least) exposed fissures in government relations and the press are talking about President Putin’s authority coming under some pressure. This new geopolitical set of headlines has helped to give gold some minor buoyancy and the return of China to the market is almost undoubtedly adding some support. Meanwhile the latest trade figures from China show that silver exports in the first five months of this year, at 1,627t, were up by 15% year-on-year. This is most likely to be by-product from the smelting of base metal operations.
Gold’s recent fall from the highs of 4th May was of 7%, while that of silver, always the more volatile metal, was 15% (from 5th May to 23rd June) to $22.11. This is a combination of a weakening gold price and an uneasy economic outlook in both the eastern and western hemispheres. In common with gold, silver has started a tentative recovery from the lows and is once again above the 200-day moving average.
Looking ahead we have a large number of economic figures coming from the United States, but comparatively few from the EU and China, although the EU does post Economic, industrial and services confidence, none of which are expected to be bullish. In the States the Purchasing Managers’ indices were released at the end of last week and were below expectations, with manufacturing at just 46.5 (50 is neutral). On Tuesday this week we will see durable goods orders, which are forecast to be down month-on-month, while core PCE is released on Friday; this is a parameter to which the Fed pays very close attention and is forecast at 5.0%.
On the basis that most expectations are baking in bearish views, any surprise to the upside could put fresh pressure on gold.
Spot silver , technical
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
In the Managed Money sector on COMEX, the week to last Tuesday saw a slight change of sentiment, with outright gold longs dropping by just one tonne and a small reduction in outright shorts, leading to a small increase of just four tonnes in the net long position, to 237t compared with a twelve-month average of 123t. the silver position was more bearish, with a drop of 270t (4.3%) in longs and an increase of 171t (4.1%) in shorts. In the Exchange Traded Products gold remains under pressure with 18 of the past 19 days experiencing redemptions, amounting to 31.3t in total. This takes overall holdings to 3,449t (against world mine production of 3,628t), a fall year-to-date of 23t, compared with a drop of 110t for the full year 2022. There has been some scattered bargain hunting in silver ETPs, but in June to date there have been net redemptions of 22t and year to date the change is a very small drop of 22t to 23,275t (world mine production was 25,580t).
Gold’s fall from the highs of 4th May was of 7%, while that of silver, always the more volatile metal, was 15% (from 5th May to 23rd June) to $22.11. This is a combination of a weakening gold price and an uneasy economic outlook in both the eastern and western hemispheres. In common with gold, silver has started a tentative recovery from the lows and is once again above the 200-day moving average of 123t.
This week will be focused on geopolitics and is likely to see some improvement in metals prices but sentiment remains cautious.
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Gold's breakout has landed in a month that history has repeatedly favored, and the seasonal record stretching back to 2000 helps explain why. A closer look at August returns, win rates and how the calendar shifts into September shows where the seasonal edge is strongest and where it fades.
Silver's push above its summer range has less to do with supply and more to do with a single diplomatic thread. A potential U.S.-Iran deal has become the swing factor for a breakout that is far from confirmed.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
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