By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
StoneX Precious Metals Weekly Front Desk Presentation
Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis, EMEA & Asia
Tel: +44 203 580 6115 / mobile +44 7384 833897
2 September 2025
StoneX Gold & Silver round-up for StoneX Bullion
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion silver recommended for the Critical Minerals List
02 September 2025
US fed funds rate – markets pricing in 90% chance of a cut in September
Silver’s potential insertion into the Critical Minerals list; implication
To qualify for inclusion in the Critical Minerals list (which was set up in President Trump’s first term) a commodity must meet three criteria:
It must be deemed essential to the US’ economy or its defence
It must be vulnerable to supply chain disruption, including restrictions associated with foreign political risk, abrupt demand growth and other geopolitical risk elements
It must be vital to manufacturing applications including agriculture, consumer electronics, currency, energy, healthcare and technology.
The list is updated every three years and the 2025 iteration has now been drafted; silver is on the proposal along with copper, lead, rhenium, potash and silicon. The US Geological Survey’s report includes the following: “The concentration of mineral commodity production in a few countries and the high degree of reliance of the United States on imports from these countries increases the risks associated with foreign supply disruptions”. The USGS applies two criteria; the potential effects of foreign trade disruptions on the US economy; and whether there is a single producer of the coommodity in the US. As far as silver is concerned the USGS included the following: “Silver’s probability-weighted net decrease in U.S. GDP is largely due to a scenario in which Mexico stops silver exports to the United States—a high impact ($435 million), low probability (4 percent) event.
So we have a situation where industrial demand for silver is expandiing and will keep the metal in a global pre-investment deficit; and the tensions between the US and Mexico and Canada are also pertinent. Based on the UN’s trade figures, during 2024 Mexcio and Canada accounted for 49% and 18% of US silver imports respectively, comprising 2,823t and 1,070t from a total of 5,813t.
US: silver imports, 2024
Source: UN Comtrade, StoneX
The S&P, gold and the dollar
The S&P, gold and copper
Gold, one-year view; approaching the April high
Gold:dollar correlation; tightening again; now at-0.70
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Silver, one-year view; now overbought
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
US yield curve: steepening as the short end prices in rate cuts while the longer tenors are rising on fears of a longer-term inflationary impact
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
COMEX gold inventories, tonnes
Source CME via Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold in key local currencies.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold:silver ratio, year to-date
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t) –
COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)
Source for both charts: CFTC, StoneX
CFTC: -gold and silver both showed small net increases in longs and minor short-covering in the week to 26th August.
ETF: - Silver: The Bloomberg figures suggest that the net ETF creations in H1 2025 were 1,761t, of which 989t were in June. In other words, 56% of the net gains to that point were in June. Looked at another way, on an unweighted annualised basis, June uptake would be equivalent to 11,864t, or the equivalent of five months’ silver mine production. Activity has been mixed since, but the balance has been favourable with net additions of 541t in July and a further 524t in August to a total of 25,070t, according to Bloomberg. World mine production is just less than 26,000t.
Gold: the latest figures from the World Gold Council, up to 22nd August, show a drop of 5.7t on the previous week, to a total of 3,656.7t. North America shed 9.9t while Europe added 5.2t and Asia showed a small loss of 0.2t. Since then the Bloomberg numbers, which are not as comprehensive as those of the WGC, imply a gain of 29t with six consecutive days of net creations. World gold mine production is 3,661t (Metals Focus figures).
Gold supply-demand balance update:
| Tonnes | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025e | 2026f |
| SUPPLY | ||||||||
| Mine supply | 3,599 | 3,484 | 3,576 | 3,634 | 3,646 | 3,661 | 3695 | 3,700 |
| Recycling | 1,276 | 1,293 | 1,136 | 1,140 | 1,239 | 1,370 | 1500 | 1,300 |
| Net hedging | 6 | 39 | 7 | 9 | 59 | 57 | 20 | 50 |
| Total | 4,881 | 4,738 | 4,705 | 4,765 | 4,944 | 4,974 | 5,215 | 5,050 |
| DEMAND | ||||||||
| Jewellery | 2,152 | 1,324 | 2,231 | 2,195 | 2,191 | 1,878 | 1900 | 2,000 |
| Industrial | 333 | 309 | 337 | 315 | 305 | 326 | 340 | 353.6 |
| Bar & coin | 871 | 902 | 1,180 | 1,222 | 1,190 | 1,188 | 1000 | 1,100 |
| Net Official Sector | 605 | 255 | 450 | 1,080 | 1,051 | 1,045 | 850 | 850 |
| Total | 3,961 | 2,790 | 4,198 | 4,812 | 4,737 | 4,437 | 4,090 | 4,304 |
| Balance | 920 | 1,948 | 507 | 47 | 207 | 538 | 1,125 | 746 |
| ETPs | 404 | 893 | 189 | 110 | 244 | 7 | 700 | |
| Residual balance | 516 | 1,055 | 695 | 62 | 452 | 544 | 425 |
Source: Metals Focus, StoneX
| 2 September 2025 | Previous week | % change | Year-to-date | Range Jan 2024 onwards | Range as % | ||
| Min | Max | ||||||
| Gold (pm LBMA price) | 3,474.90 | 3,334.25 | 4.22% | 31.31% | 1,985.10 | 3,474.90 | 75.05% |
| Silver (LBMA price) | 40.58 | 38.01 | 6.76% | 37.96% | 22.09 | 40.58 | 83.72% |
| Platinum (pm LBMA price) | 1,411.00 | 1,339.00 | 5.38% | 53.20% | 920.00 | 1,474.00 | 60.22% |
| Palladium (pm LBMA price) | 1,128.00 | 1,124.00 | 0.36% | 22.48% | 852.00 | 1,297.00 | 52.23% |
| S&P 500 | 6,460.26 | 6,466.91 | -0.10% | 9.37% | 4,688.68 | 6,501.86 | 38.67% |
| $:€ | 1.1711 | 1.1618 | 0.80% | 12.52% | 1.0244 | 1.1806 | 15.25% |
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Gold's breakout has landed in a month that history has repeatedly favored, and the seasonal record stretching back to 2000 helps explain why. A closer look at August returns, win rates and how the calendar shifts into September shows where the seasonal edge is strongest and where it fades.
Silver's push above its summer range has less to do with supply and more to do with a single diplomatic thread. A potential U.S.-Iran deal has become the swing factor for a breakout that is far from confirmed.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
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