By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
As usual, regional differences are marked when it comes to Swiss trade with different major counterparties. What is clear, though, is that anecdotal evidence of growing industrial interest in palladium (underpinned by sponge premia) can be to some extent corroborated by the fall in both gross and net imports from the United States and Germany, two nations whose powerhouse automotive industries have been under pressure from COVID and supply chain issues.
US Car sales (domestic and imported), M
US Car sales (domestic), M
Source for charts: Bloomberg Intelligence, StoneX
Gross imports from the United States, which had averaged 1,550kgpm over 2019-2021 inclusive, have now dropped to a total of just 2,185kg over the first eleven months of this year (average 199 kg), and just 13kg in September to November. Gross exports to the States had averaged 78kgpm over 2019-2021, but are up to an average of 226kg pm this year for a running total of 2,488kg.
Annual net Pd imports to Switzerland by major counterparty; kg
Source: Swiss Federal Customs Administration, StoneX
Obviously, this is by no means the whole story, but it is further backed up by the improvement in sales of domestically produced cars, although dealers are running down inventories, which impinges on overall production numbers. Nonetheless, for now at least it looks as if the States’ excess inventories of palladium have been reduced to more workable levels.
Elsewhere, Hong Kong and China between them have been more or less neutral over 2022 so far, with Switzerland importing a negligible 60kg from the two combined over the year to date, compared with net exports from Switzerland last year of 3,806 kg and 11,063 kg the year before as China geared up for the move to China 6 emission limits, a programme that is scheduled for completion in July 2023. How the amendments to the Government’s COVID policies will knock on into 2023 remains to be seen.
Meanwhile the Swiss Customs records show no imports of palladium from Russia since last June; similarly with platinum.
Swiss net recorded platinum imports with major counterparties
Source: Swiss Federal Customs Administration, StoneX
The platinum figures from Hong Kong and China, by contrast, after net exports averaging 334 kgpm over 2017-2019 inclusive, then went through a much more austere period as COVID took hold; there was some scattered interest from mid-2021 to mid-2022, but October and November have seen 2,836kg come back to Switzerland. While the automotive sector still dominates in China, investment in other industrial sectors has been robust as the country works on expanding its infrastructure, but problems over the past months may have resulted in some inventory management in the industrial sector as well as autos.
China vehicle sales, 2017 to October 2022
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, StoneX
Here, too, the prognosis depends to a large extent on the developments in mainland China with respect to the economic re-opening. Current independent economic forecasts are for GDP growth of anything from 3.0 to 4.5% in 2023, but first the resurgence in e number of infections, which has spread to some industrial cities, will need to be addressed.
Our full-year market projections for the fundamental balance in, and the outlook for, the PGM markets will be available early next year, along with those for gold, silver, and the base metals.
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