Coffee Weekly Report

Cecafé reports a 23.5% decline in coffee exports in February

According to data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazil exported 2.618 million bags of all types of coffee in February, a decline of 23.5% compared to the same month of the previous year.

In detail:

• Arabica: 2.06 million bags
  → monthly increase of 12.2% and annual increase of 29%.
• Conilon (Robusta): 226 thousand bags
  → monthly increase of 24% and a slight decline of 2% versus Feb/2025, influenced by stronger domestic demand and the competitiveness of Southeast Asian coffees, currently in the middle of harvest.

• Soluble: 320 thousand bags
  → monthly increase of 27% and annual decline of 14%.

  Monthly Brazilian green coffee exports

  Source: Cecafé. Prepared by: StoneX.

  Why this matters: Although expectations of greater supply in the 2026/27 crop are exerting bearish pressure on prices, Cecafé data reinforce the perception of tighter bean availability in the short term. Brazil recently harvested its smallest crop in four years and is currently in the inter-crop period, when the volume available for export naturally declines.

• Lower supply from Brazil may act as a supporting factor for futures prices, especially if Colombian production, an important competitor in Arabica, continues below its historical pace.
   

Soluble coffee exports recover: The positive highlight of the month came from soluble coffee exports, which reached around 320 thousand bags, the highest monthly volume since May 2025.

• This movement is likely to continue gaining traction in the coming months, especially after the end of the tariff restrictions imposed by the United States on the product.
• Soluble coffee had continued to suffer from the 50% tariff imposed by the United States in 2025, while other coffee types were exempted in November, along with several other agricultural products.
• The high tariff significantly reduced the competitiveness of Brazilian soluble coffee in its main buyer market.
• The situation changed on February 20, when a U.S. court decision suspended the legal basis used by the Executive Branch to impose additional tariffs, reducing the charge applied to soluble coffee to the standard rate (10%).
• As a result, the product is once again competing under more balanced conditions, and it is plausible that March exports will post an additional recovery, since it will be the first full month under the new tariff regime.

Despite the recovery in soluble coffee, total shipments to the U.S. decline

Despite the normalization of tariffs on Brazilian green coffee since November of last year, shipments remain below expectations.

• Total coffee shipments (green, soluble, and roasted) to the U.S. totaled 270 thousand bags, down 30% from the previous month and 44% from February of last year.
• In terms of share, the U.S. was only the third-largest destination, behind Germany (394 thousand bags) and Italy (283 thousand bags).
• Although, seasonally, February is a month of declining shipments and supply in the country is more restricted, the monthly drop observed in U.S. purchases was steeper than among the other main importers, with Germany even posting a slight monthly gain.
• Why this matters: While the figure indicates that shipment flows to the U.S. have not yet fully normalized, the result may also raise questions regarding consumption in the American market. Therefore, it will be important to monitor the country’s February imports, which will be reported at the beginning of next month, to determine whether the country actually posted a total purchase volume below normal, or whether other countries were able to supply significant volumes to American importers.

  Monthly Brazilian coffee exports to the top 5 destinations (thousand bags)

  Source: Cecafé. Prepared by: StoneX.

Possibility of a strong El Niño increases production risks for coffee

Last week, NOAA, the U.S. weather agency, updated its climate outlook and projections for the ENSO phenomenon, which encompasses the La Niña and El Niño cycles. The main points of the report are highlighted below:

La Niña still present, but weakening: The La Niña pattern persisted between February and early March, with Pacific temperature anomalies close to -0.4 °C, in addition to characteristic wind and rainfall patterns. However, the signals indicate that this condition should lose strength in the coming weeks.

Imminent transition to ENSO-Neutral: The ocean is showing rapid and deep warming, reaching as deep as 250 meters. Models indicate a shift to neutral conditions as early as next month, with this phase expected to be relatively short, concentrated between May and July, with a 55% probability.

El Niño alert for the second half of 2026: Starting in June 2026, the probability of El Niño formation rises to 62%. Given the intensity and speed of ocean warming, NOAA highlights a high probability of a strong El Niño between October and December 2026. Although charts from the International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University still do not clearly signal a strong-intensity event, NOAA already indicates that by the end of the year anomalies may exceed +1.5 °C, characterizing a strong El Niño.

Implications for the coffee market: While coffee market fundamentals had been mostly bearish, it is possible that the climate phenomenon may bring moments of reversal in this market perception during the second half of the year.

It is worth noting that, while a weak El Niño may at certain times bring localized beneficial effects to Brazil, the phenomenon tends to be associated with warmer conditions in the period preceding flowering, which keeps the market on alert.

If the possibility of a more intense El Niño continues to be reinforced in future updates, the market is likely to begin pricing in climate risks for the 2027/28 crop, which could become an important support factor for prices in the second half of the year.

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