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Soybean Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Chicago soybeans recover in the week, bolstered by USDA releases 
 
Ana Luiza Lodi
analuiza.lodi@stonex.com
 
Planting intentions did not show an increase compared to 2022 and March 1st stocks were below expected average   
 
Bearish drivers
  • Estimated global production for 2022/23 above consumption, according to USDA; 

  • Combating inflation may lead to a recession; 

  • Possibility of an absolute production record in Brazil; 

  • Signs of economic slowdown in China and and increased outbreaks of ASF; 

  • Agricultural Forum shows production growth for 2023/24 in the US.

 
Bullish drivers
  • Relaxation of anti-Covid measures in China; 

  • Considerable crop losses in Argentina due to the climate; 

  • US 23/24 crop area not expected to grow and stocks in March 1 indicate strong use;
  • Increase in mandatory biodiesel blending in Brazil, starting in April 2023.

Last week, soybean prices in Chicago recorded gains, with the May/23 ending Friday (31) at 1505.5 cents per bushel, up 5.4% in the period. 

The market continued following the South American crop and awaited the release of planting intentions and quarterly stocks position for March 1st in the US. 

Even with the rains recorded in recent days in Argentina, there are no prospects of improvement in estimates for the 2022/23 crop in the country, with the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange (BCBA) highlighting that yields at the beginning of the harvest continue to be below the expected. Even so, for now, the BCBA has kept its production figure at 25 million tonnes, almost half of its initial estimate of 48 million. Compared to the average of the last five crops (45 million tonnes), estimated losses this year reach 44.4%. 

Despite these pessimistic perspectives for Argentine production, it should be noted that the monitoring of crop conditions, also carried out by the BCBA, showed a small improvement, with good/excellent conditions rising from 2% to 4%, and regular crops rising from 25% to 29%, while plants in poor condition went from 73% of the total to 67%. In any case, it should be noted that the situation remains much worse than it was at the same time last year, which was already a season of losses for Argentine soybeans. 

Weekly intraday - May/23 (CME)    

image-20230403182257-1
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
image-20230403182303-2
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

On the demand side, Brazil exported 10 million tonnes of soybean until March 24, against 12.2 million in March as a whole in 2022. Today (April 3), the closed month's number will be updated, with great possibilities to surpass last year. 

In the US, net export sales for the 2022/23 crop in the week ended March 23 reached 348,200 tonnes, a volume within the range of estimates, between 100,000 and 600,000 tonnes. It should be noted that, in accumulated terms, sales to China are 2.5 million tonnes ahead of last year, while for other destinations there is a negative difference of 8 million. 

US weekly export sales (000 tonnes)

image-20230403182318-3
Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

Currently, it is noteworthy that Brazilian soybeans are more advantageous for China, even more so considering the recent drops in premiums. Since Brazil is currently in its best export period, after the harvest, it is usual for China to concentrate its purchases in the country. However, cases of African swine fever and soybean crush margins in the Chinese domestic market are being watched closely. 

However, the market's great expectation was the planting intentions and quarterly position report for March 1st in the US, which was released last Friday (31). In the case of planting, this is the first USDA figure based on a survey of producers in the country. 

For soybeans, the 2023/24 area was reported at 35.41 million hectares, exactly in line with the Agricultural Forum number in February. It should be noted that this area also means stability in relation to the USDA's final number for 2022, at 35.39 million hectares. On the other hand, market expectations were for some growth in US area, highlighting that the country's balance sheet is not comfortable, with 2022/23 ending stocks estimated at 5.72, a situation that could get even tighter, considering the result of the March 1st stock position. 

According to the USDA, on that date, the US had an availability of 45.86 million tonnes of soybeans, after six months of the 2022/23 crop (Sept/22 to Feb/23). This volume was below the average expectations, which were at 47.41 million, but still within the range, from 43.5 to 52 million tonnes. 

In any case, this result shows that the country's soybean consumption (domestic and exports) was more heated between December and February and, if this trend continues, the balance of supply and demand tends to be very restricted. 

 
SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)
image-20230403182404-4
 
image 35317
 
 
 
 
  • Grains & Oilseeds

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