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StoneX Digital Asset Weekly Commentary - Election Preview

By: Stonex Digital LLC, Stonex Digital LLC

StoneX Digital Flashnote: "All Bets Are Off" - Election Preview

 

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Historically, U.S. presidential elections introduce short-term volatility. Below, we have outlined a table with our anticipated outcomes given this volatility. In scenarios where Congress is split between parties, the likelihood of passing significant new legislation diminishes due to increased challenges in reaching bipartisan agreement. This legislative gridlock reduces policy-driven market swings, as major regulatory or fiscal changes become less probable. Consequently, our scenario table reflects a tighter spread for expected market ranges under a mixed Congress, as limited legislative momentum typically stabilizes investor expectations and dampens extreme price movements.

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Source: StoneX Digital

Please note that we are not opining on the probability of the outcomes in the table above or guaranteeing any results. This is based on numerous conversations with market participants, dealers and counterparties.

Each election cycle brings specific scenarios and expected policy shifts that can impact investor sentiment and sector performance. Madsen and Hsu (2022) note that election cycles create predictable but temporary volatility as markets adjust to expected legislative priorities. This effect is particularly pronounced in sectors most likely to see policy changes, such as energy and technology.

We have noticed that Bitcoin prices have had an elevated correlation relative to the movement in election polls and odds over the last few weeks. This was apparent in Monday’s price action as weekend polls and betting markets showed a move towards Harris, with a corresponding sell off in digital assets. We continue to highlight that digital assets are likely among the highest beta risk assets to the election outcome, with the BTC options market currently implying a ~8-9% move by Friday Nov 8th expiry. Additionally, we note that near-term skew (Nov 8th only) has a stronger bid to puts than further out on the curve, reflecting near-term traders bid for protection. Moreover, alternative assets, such as SOL, may present a higher upside beta, due to the increased perceived potential for a spot ETF approval.

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Source: Bloomberg

Regardless of the outcome, we expect price volatility to be high and remain high over the next few days, weeks and months. Further data points we would watch out for would be the various appointees to key positions directly and indirectly related to digital assets by the incoming President over November and December.

  • Digital Assets

Cryptocurrency is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but it does not have legal tender status. Cryptocurrencies are sometimes exchanged for government backed currencies (known as fiat) or other currencies around the world, but they are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies. Cryptocurrencies are not covered by either FDIC or SIPC insurance. Legislative and regulatory changes or actions at the state, federal, or international level may adversely affect the use, transfer, exchange, and value of cryptocurrency.

Purchasing cryptocurrencies comes with a number of risks, including volatile market price swings or flash crashes, market manipulation, and cybersecurity risks. In addition, cryptocurrency markets and exchanges may not be regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing.

This material contained herein is intended for Institutional and Investment Professional Use Only and may not be distributed to the investing public. The views expressed are those of the author and are current only through the date stated. These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. StoneX Digital LLC is a subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is dedicated to providing institutional clients with access to multiple products and services for digital assets.

StoneX Financial Inc. does not act as counterparty or custodian to any virtual currency transaction(s) offered through its affiliate StoneX Digital LLC and this content should not be construed as a solicitation for futures or securities accounts.

The authors responsible for the preparation of this commentary hereby certify that all the views Cryptocurrency is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but it does not have legal tender status. Cryptocurrencies are sometimes exchanged for government backed currencies (known as fiat) or other currencies around the world, but they are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies. Cryptocurrencies are not covered by either FDIC or SIPC insurance. Legislative and regulatory changes or actions at the state, federal, or international level may adversely affect the use, transfer, exchange, and value of cryptocurrency.

Purchasing cryptocurrencies comes with a number of risks, including volatile market price swings or flash crashes, market manipulation, and cybersecurity risks. In addition, cryptocurrency markets and exchanges may not be regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing. Cryptocurrencies are not regulated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), FINRA, or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

This material contained herein is intended for Institutional and Investment Professional Use Only and may not be distributed to the investing public. The views expressed are those of the author and are current only through the date stated. These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the- counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. StoneX Digital LLC (“SXD”) is a subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is dedicated to providing institutional clients with access to multiple products and services for digital assets. SXD is not a registered broker-dealer or futures commission merchant subject to federal securities or commodity regulations and does not solicit securities or futures. SXD seeks to provide institutional clients the flexibility and tools to interact with markets on their terms and enable them to trade cryptocurrencies.

Options are not suitable for all investors. There are risks involved in any option strategy. Individuals should not enter into option transactions until they have read and understood the option disclosure document titled "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options," which outlines the purposes and risks of option transactions.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate with the value of the underlying securities. ETFs trade like a stock, and there will be brokerage commissions associated with buying and selling exchange traded funds unless trading occurs in a fee-based account. ETFs may trade for less than their net asset value. Investors should consider an ETF’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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