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StoneX Digital Asset Weekly Commentary - Raydium

By: Stonex Digital LLC, Stonex Digital LLC

Raydium: The Powerhouse of Solana’s DeFi

 

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Executive Summary

  • Market trading color: Bitcoin continues to set new all-time highs amongst flurry of bullish headlines, IBIT options debut, BTC futures open interest soars leading to an increase of potential for the basis trade, and despite the rise in BTC, sentiment remains subdued as alts lag
  • Theme of the week – Raydium dominates Solana's DeFi landscape with hybrid AMM, deep liquidity, and trading volume leadership
  • Sector commentary: Bitcoin makes new all-time highs, Bitcoin memecoins, El Salvador’s tokenized US treasuries offering, and spot Bitcoin ETF options trading goes live

Market Trading Color (Nolan Aibel)

It feels like each morning or week when drafting a market update it begins with “Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high of….” Today is no exception. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has settled near $97,500 after having hit a new all-time high of $98,342 overnight. Surpassing $100,000 seems inevitable at this point although it may be a tough beast to conquer with seemingly stacked offers clustered below the level. If it is breached though, we could witness over $1B in shorts liquidated. The market sentiment is undeniably euphoric, fueled by a flurry of bullish headlines dominating the news this week, including:

  • MicroStrategy buys $4.6B worth of Bitcoin, plans to buy another $2.6B
  • Senator Lummis Proposes the US Buy 1M Bitcoin
  • A government department is named after a memecoin (DOGE)
  • BlackRock deploys funds on Aptos, AVAX, OP, ARB, and Poly
  • McDonald’s partners with Doodles NFTs
  • Donald Trump's social media company is in talks to acquire Bakkt, a crypto-trading platform. The President plans to meet with Coinbase CEO Armstrong to discuss crypto policy moving forward.
  • Coinbase is now the #1 ranked finance app in the app store

The biggest headline of them all has been the launch of listed options for Blackrock’s BTC spot ETF, $IBIT. 

The flow has been predominantly bullish, with call options significantly outpacing puts over the past two days. On the first day, 289,000 calls were traded compared to just 65,000 puts, followed by 238,000 calls versus 79,000 puts yesterday. This indicates that activity has been driven primarily by speculative and directional trades, with minimal evidence of hedging—a somewhat surprising trend given the current all-time highs.

One plausible explanation is the relative immaturity of the product, as many participants are already speculating or hedging through CME Bitcoin futures. CME futures have surged to record levels, with over $21.6 billion in open interest, accounting for a dominant 33% share of the total futures market. While a significant portion of this open interest may be attributed to hedging, the strong speculative demand is evident, as reflected by the annualized three-month rolling basis returning to approximately 15%.

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Source: Glassnode

While one might expect widespread enthusiasm across the crypto community during Bitcoin's rally, overall sentiment remains subdued. This is primarily due to the underperformance of altcoins as Bitcoin continues to surge. Bitcoin dominance reached a peak above 61% yesterday, the highest level since March 2021. This trend suggests that Bitcoin dominance could climb further, potentially exceeding the 70% threshold, before we see capital flow back into altcoins and lower-cap assets.

image-20241121110443-3

Source: TradingView

Raydium's Strategic Position in Solana’s 2024 DeFi Landscape

Raydium, Solana’s leading decentralized exchange (DEX) is central to facilitating a lot of the volume done on Solana. Raydium’s infrastructure is essential for the network, as it powers the liquidity and trading required for both meme coin markets and more established DeFi assets. Raydium has become a critical piece of Solana’s financial backbone in this role, supporting high-frequency trading and facilitating capital flow across the network.

Overview of Raydium’s Model: Hybrid AMM and Revenue Streams

Raydium was launched in 2021 as Solana’s first automated market maker (AMM) with a hybrid model integrating with central limit order books. This architecture enables Raydium to interface with platforms like OpenBook, sharing liquidity pools across Solana’s DEX ecosystem.

Raydium currently offers three main types of pools:

  • Standard AMM Pools (AMM v4): Utilized for broad market liquidity.
  • Constant Product Swap Pools (CPMM): This enables liquidity provision supporting Token 2022, allowing advanced token functionalities such as programmable fees and enhanced minting controls.
  • Concentrated Liquidity Pools (CLMM): Allows users to optimize liquidity provision within specific price ranges, reducing slippage and improving capital efficiency for sophisticated traders.
image-20241121110443-4
Source: Artemis

Raydium’s revenue model includes transaction fees, 12% of which are allocated to buybacks of the $RAY token.

Market Position and Dominance in Solana’s DEX Landscape

Raydium has established itself as the dominant player in Solana’s DEX ecosystem, capturing 65.9% of the protocol’s total trading volume. This commanding position reflects Raydium’s ability to leverage deep liquidity, a user-friendly interface, and a robust infrastructure capable of handling the high transaction volumes associated with the ongoing memecoin trading boom on Solana.

image-20241121110443-5

Source: Dune Analytics

The chart above illustrates Raydium’s dominant position in cumulative trading volume, which reached approximately $16.8 billion as of October 2024. This performance significantly surpasses its closest competitors, Orca and Meteora, with trading volumes of $3.9 billion and $2 billion, respectively. The substantial gap highlights Raydium’s ability to accommodate a diverse range of assets, from stablecoins to high volatility memecoins, solidifying its status as the preferred platform for Solana traders and attracting considerable liquidity and trading activity to its pools.

Compared to other Solana DEXs:

  • Orca holds 14.4% of the total DEX volume, maintaining a respectable user base but still trailing far behind Raydium in overall activity.
  • Lifinity captures 7.8% of the market, primarily serving niche segments within the ecosystem.
  • Specialized platforms like PumpFun and Meteora command 4.8% and 7.4% of the market, respectively. These platforms focus on specific user needs—PumpFun, for example, has gained traction through its role in launching new tokens—but neither rival Raydium’s scope on tokens.

Over time, Raydium has consistently held the most significant portion of the market share among Solana DEXs, especially during heightened trading activity. This visual emphasizes Raydium’s resilience and ability to retain its user base, even as market conditions fluctuate.

image-20241121110443-6

Source: Dune Analytics

User Growth and Liquidity Advantages

As the largest liquidity provider in Solana’s ecosystem, Raydium benefits from economies of scale—its liquidity attracts more traders, creating a positive feedback loop that reinforces its market position.

image-20241121110443-7

Source: Dune Analytics

The "New vs. Recurring Traders" chart shows Raydium’s user engagement, highlighting its success in attracting and retaining new users. This balance between first-time and recurring traders indicates Raydium’s broad market reach and ability to foster long-term loyalty among its user base.

Treasury and Protocol Fee Growth

Raydium’s financial strength within the Solana ecosystem is further demonstrated through its consistent treasury balance and protocol fee growth. This growth is primarily driven by the platform's ability to sustain high trading volumes, particularly during periods of heightened market activity.

image-20241121110443-8

Source: topledger.xyz

The Treasury Balance chart also points to the cumulative growth of Raydium’s treasury, which now stands around $2.69 million USD. This upward trend reflects the effectiveness of Raydium’s fee model, which allocates a percentage of trading fees to bolster the protocol’s financial reserves. The daily spikes in treasury inflows correspond to times of high trading volume, often linked to the meme coin frenzy or broader DeFi activity on Solana.

Similarly, the Daily Protocol Fee chart below highlights Raydium’s ability to generate consistent revenue. The spikes in protocol fees observed from early 2024 onwards align with the broader market moves and events.

image-20241121110443-9

Source: topledger.xyz

Comparative TVL Analysis with Competitors

In the context of competing platforms, Raydium’s TVL positions it as a leading DEX on Solana. For comparison:

  • Raydium’s TVL stands at approximately $2.3B, up from 23 million at the start of 2023
  • Orca holds around $297 million
  • Sanctum Infinity has a TVL of $237 million, and Meteora DLMM has $430 million up nearly 10x YTD
  • Major cross-chain DEX competitors include Uniswap V3 on Ethereum, which has $5.7 billion in TVL, and PancakeSwap on the BNB Chain, which has $1.8 billion. While these figures are higher, they reflect platforms on chains with longer histories and broader adoption, making Raydium’s achievements on Solana more notable

Raydium stands out as the leading DEX on the Solana network. Discussions with institutional investors have highlighted that Raydium is serving as a proxy for pump.fun—a topic we covered in a previous weekly report. By establishing liquidity pools and implementing a dynamic fee model, Raydium has effectively capitalized on the meme coin trend while simultaneously catering to a broader DeFi user base.

Sector Commentary

  • Layer One / Altcoins

    • Bitcoin ($BTC): Bitcoin Makes New All-Time High of $94,000 as ETF Options Go Live (link)
    • Bitcoin ($BTC): Bitcoin at $100K No Longer a Dream Believe Traders, but Blow-Off Top Warning in Near Term (link)
    • Bitcoin ($BTC): Bitcoin's Correlation to U.S. Equities and Ether Weakens: Van Straten (link)
    • Bitcoin ($BTC): Bitcoin Near a Record High Might Be Just Half the Journey as BCA Research Signals $200K (link)
    • Ethereum ($ETH): Ethereum price targets $3.7K on soaring ‘smart money’ interest (link)
    • Ethereum ($ETH): Ethereum's Ether Has Fallen Out of Investor Favor and How (link)
    • Solana ($SOL): SOL Looks Set to Outperform BTC as Solana-Based DEXs Register Record $41B in Trading Volume: Godbole (link)
    • Ripple ($XRP): XRP Price Skyrockets Past $1 as SEC Faces Legal Troubles And Favorable Regulatory Shift Looms (link)
    • Altcoins: CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: HBAR Gains 13.3%, Leading Index Higher from Monday (link)
    • Altcoins: Missed BTC Rally to $93K? Bitcoin Memecoins Could Be Next to Watch (link)
  • DeFi / Stablecoins
    • Sky, formerly Maker, deploys stablecoin on Solana (link)
    • Kraken, Tether-Backed Dutch Firm Rolls Out MiCA-Compliant Euro, U.S. Dollar Stablecoins (link)
    • Ethena Sees $1B Inflows as Crypto Rally Brings Back Double-Digit Yields (link)
    • Stablecoin issuer Paxos is looking to buy Membrane Finance to gain market access across the EU (link)
  • Web3 / AI / NFTs
    • CoinDesk Protocol Village: Dogecoin Development Project Led by Ankr CEO Acquired by Spirit Blockchain (link)
    • Competing AI agent tokens within ai16z community cause debate as prices whipsaw (link)
  • RWA / Tokenization / Metaverse / Gaming
    • El Salvador Is Getting Its First Tokenized U.S. Treasuries Offering (link)
  • Digital Infrastructure: Capital Markets / Exchanges / DAOs / Mining
    • Coinbase Asset Management CEO’s allocation recommendation (link)
    • Can a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Move Forward Without Congress? Experts Disagree (link)
    • Donald Trump’s Media Group Eyes Purchase of Crypto Exchange Bakkt: Report (link)
    • Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Added Additional 51,780 Bitcoin for $4.6B (link)
    • Metaplanet Follows MSTR's Lead, Announces $11.3M Debt Sale for Additional Bitcoin Purchases (link)
    • Semler Scientific Added 215 Bitcoin to Holdings, Bringing Stack to 1,273 BTC (link)
    • Spot Bitcoin ETF options trading goes live: What traders need to know (link)
    • Spot Bitcoin ETFs hit $1.7B weekly inflows, marking six-week streak (link)
    • Bank Clients Just Dipped Their Toes Into Bitcoin ETFs, but Q4 Could See a FOMO Spike (link)
    • Bitcoin Mining Economics Improved in the First Half of November: JPMorgan (link)
    • MARA Holdings Upsizes Convertible Notes Offering by $150M Amid Overwhelming Investor Demand (link)
    • Crypto Exchange Gemini Starts Up in France With EU's MiCA Laws Weeks From Kicking In (link)
    • After Binance's $4.3B Lesson, Do Rival Crypto Exchanges Risk Running Afoul of U.S. Rules? (link)
    • Howard Lutnick, Tether's Wall Street Banker, Is Trump's Pick for Commerce Chief, Not Treasury Secretary: Reports (link)
    • An Interview With El Salvador’s Top Crypto Regulator: ‘Developing Countries Can Lead the Financial Revolution’ (link)
  • Digital Assets

Cryptocurrency is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but it does not have legal tender status. Cryptocurrencies are sometimes exchanged for government backed currencies (known as fiat) or other currencies around the world, but they are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies. Cryptocurrencies are not covered by either FDIC or SIPC insurance. Legislative and regulatory changes or actions at the state, federal, or international level may adversely affect the use, transfer, exchange, and value of cryptocurrency.

Purchasing cryptocurrencies comes with a number of risks, including volatile market price swings or flash crashes, market manipulation, and cybersecurity risks. In addition, cryptocurrency markets and exchanges may not be regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing.

This material contained herein is intended for Institutional and Investment Professional Use Only and may not be distributed to the investing public. The views expressed are those of the author and are current only through the date stated. These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. StoneX Digital LLC is a subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is dedicated to providing institutional clients with access to multiple products and services for digital assets.

StoneX Financial Inc. does not act as counterparty or custodian to any virtual currency transaction(s) offered through its affiliate StoneX Digital LLC and this content should not be construed as a solicitation for futures or securities accounts.

The authors responsible for the preparation of this commentary hereby certify that all the views Cryptocurrency is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but it does not have legal tender status. Cryptocurrencies are sometimes exchanged for government backed currencies (known as fiat) or other currencies around the world, but they are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies. Cryptocurrencies are not covered by either FDIC or SIPC insurance. Legislative and regulatory changes or actions at the state, federal, or international level may adversely affect the use, transfer, exchange, and value of cryptocurrency.

Purchasing cryptocurrencies comes with a number of risks, including volatile market price swings or flash crashes, market manipulation, and cybersecurity risks. In addition, cryptocurrency markets and exchanges may not be regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing. Cryptocurrencies are not regulated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), FINRA, or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

This material contained herein is intended for Institutional and Investment Professional Use Only and may not be distributed to the investing public. The views expressed are those of the author and are current only through the date stated. These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the- counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. StoneX Digital LLC (“SXD”) is a subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is dedicated to providing institutional clients with access to multiple products and services for digital assets. SXD is not a registered broker-dealer or futures commission merchant subject to federal securities or commodity regulations and does not solicit securities or futures. SXD seeks to provide institutional clients the flexibility and tools to interact with markets on their terms and enable them to trade cryptocurrencies.

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