StoneX logo

Strategic Shifts, Abandoned Deals, and New Acquisitions Reshaping the Global Coffee Landscape

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Banner Currencies

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The global coffee industry is undergoing a period of significant consolidation, strategic divestment, and portfolio reassessment. From the collapse of Coca‑Cola’s attempted sale of Costa Coffee to the expansion of U.S. drive‑thru chains through targeted acquisitions, the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) landscape reveals an industry recalibrating in response to changing consumer behavior, increased operational costs, and shifting valuation expectations.

In one of the most high‑profile developments of the year, Coca‑Cola has halted its plans to sell Costa Coffee after private‑equity offers fell far below expectations. Bids reportedly landed under £2 billion, roughly half the £3.9 billion Coca‑Cola paid for Costa in 2018. Negotiations, which continued through late 2025, ultimately collapsed in December, prompting Coca‑Cola to withdraw from the sale process. Costa’s recent financial performance underscores why buyers hesitated. Financials showed thar revenue in 2024 grew just 1% year on year, while operating losses more tha  doubled from the previous year. Coca‑Cola, which originally planned to leverage Costa to expand its ready‑to‑drink, vending, and retail coffee strategy, now faces pressure to re‑evaluate Costa’s long‑term positioning. CEO Henrique Braun—set to step into the role in March 2026—may need to consider a renewed sale, a restructuring, or an internal reinvestment to revive international potential.

In contrast to Coca‑Cola’s halted divestiture, U.S. drive‑thru giant Dutch Bros is actively expanding through acquisitions. In January 2026, the company completed its first-ever purchase, acquiring Clutch Coffee and converting all 20 of its North Carolina locations to Dutch Bros stores.

In August 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) announced it would acquire JDE Peet’s in a landmark $18 billion deal, the largest European acquisition in more than two years. The merger significantly reshapes global competition by creating a coffee powerhouse rivaling Nestlé. After closing (expected 1H 2026), KDP will separate into two U.S.-listed companies: Beverage Co. for North American beverages and Global Coffee Co. This structure mirrors the dual-market strengths of both businesses. Peet’s Coffee—one of JDE Peet’s flagship brands—is already restructuring its U.S. retail footprint: Peet’s will close multiple cafés by January 30, 2026, including 30 Bay Area stores.

Other major M&A deals included San Francisco‑based Philz Coffee being sold to private‑equity firm Freeman Spogli & Co. for $145 million, according to documents shared with stakeholders.

Los Angeles specialty chain Caffe Luxxe was acquired by luxury confectionery brand Sugarfina in a deal valued at $24.5 million, marking another notable specialty‑coffee acquisition within the U.S. premium retail segment.

A majority stake in Starbucks China changed hands in a high‑profile late‑2025 transaction.

A key factor shaping valuation expectations in late 2025 and early 2026 has been a more favorable global supply outlook.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that easing supply fears—driven by improved Brazilian harvest forecasts and USDA upward revisions—helped stabilize global market sentiment in December 2025.

This stabilization affects acquisition appetite on both the production and retail sides, lowering perceived volatility and potentially increasing buyer confidence.

Alexis Rubinstein

 

  • Coffee

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.