StoneX logo
Contact us

Sugar and Ethanol Daily Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Add us as preferred source on Google
Sugar exports rebound in November
 
Filipi Cardoso
filipi.cardoso@stonex.com
Marcelo Di Bonifacio Filho
marcelo.bonifacio@stonex.com
Rafael Borges
rafael.borges@stonex.com
MDIC releases data for sugar and ethanol exports in November 2023
On Wednesday (06), the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) released detailed export and import data for the Brazilian trade balance in November. Sugar shipments, as expected, increased monthly, totaling 3.68 million tonnes (the highest monthly figure of 2023), 28.3% above the volume in October, which was only 2.87 MMT - for raw sugar, the monthly hike was 32%.
The improvement in Brazilian sugar exports is directly linked to the lower rainfall in November compared to October at the port of Santos (the main outlet for the commodity), which had been facing logistical difficulties and increased lineups for sugar loading. At the port of São Paulo, sugar shipments reached 2.6 MMT, a monthly growth of 34%. In addition, the crops in the Northeast, with performance above last year so far in the cycle that started in September 2023, have swelled their surplus available for export, providing higher volumes of sugar exports.
Brazilian sugar exports (million tonnes)
image 85553
Source: MDIC. Design: StoneX.

The growth of Brazilian shipments explains part of the recent sugar depreciation in New York, as there were concerns about Brazil's ability to export such a large crop in this 2023/24 season (Apr-Mar) in the Center-South. In October, bullish movements reflected the increase in rainfall in Santos, which dissipated at the turn of the month, reversing the market direction until this first week of December, when the March/24 contract returned to US¢ 23.00/lb, accumulating a drop of 475 points in 10 trading sessions.

On the Brazilian side, optimism regarding shipments is expected to continue, with the expectation that the country will export volumes above average in December, January, February, and March - the inter-crop for sugarcane in the Center-South - as a result of both the delay in exports throughout the year and productive growth. In terms of rainfall, November was already less rainy compared to October, and based on what has been observed and the forecasts so far, December can also be less rainy compared to October. According to data from Williams Shipping Agency, for shipments in December, the sugar lineup stood at 3.8 million tonnes last week - a volume that is not expected to be fully realized by the end of the month but already indicates the large availability of the commodity from Brazil, still impacted by the weak month of October.

Thus, in 2023, StoneX Market Intelligence expects exports at 30.7 million tonnes, slightly above the record registered in 2020. For 2024, investment in logistics, especially in port terminals, will be necessary for the country to be able to export all the sugar that will be available given the increasingly better projections for the 2024/25 crop (Apr-Mar) in the CS - with a potential for national shipments to reach over 35 million tonnes.

As brought up in a recent analysis (here), sugar stocks in Brazil are above 16.0 MMT, a record volume. In the Center-South, shipments are not expected to be able to absorb the entire production hike, resulting in a potential carryout from 2023/24 to 2024/25 of around 6.0 MMT, almost double the 3.33 MMT of 2022/23. In the next season, even if exports increase, the scenario should be similar since maximizing the sugar mix will put more of the product on the market in the face of the natural mismatch of port investments, which take longer to be effective and increase export capacity.
 

Ending stocks of sugar in the Center-South (million tonnes)

image 85554
* StoneX estimates. Source: UNICA. Design: StoneX.

Regarding ethanol trade in November, exports above 200 thousand m³; however, it recorded a monthly contraction of 13.3% compared to the same period in 2022, marking a 20.3% decrease. Year-to-date, ethanol exports total 2.22 million m³, a 4.3% increase compared to last year.

Brazilian monthly ethanol exports (million m³)

image 85556
Source: MDIC. Design: StoneX.

The high number of ethanol exports observed in 2023 can be largely attributed to increased biofuel supply. The Center-South crop has been showing high productivity, crushing, reaching almost 600 million tonnes (as of the first half of November). Additionally, the ethanol-gasoline parity was above 70% in the first half of the year, reducing hydrous ethanol consumption in the domestic market. In contrast, Otto cycle consumption showed significant growth.

According to StoneX estimates released in late November, the total ethanol production for the 2023/24 crop season (April-March), including products produced from corn and sugarcane, is estimated at 32.8 million m³, a 13.5% increase compared to the previous crop season. This factor has kept the plants with high stocks, allowing them to maintain export levels above the 5-year average. 

According to projections, the sector is expected to export about 2.5 million m³ in 2023, a scenario like that of 2022. The main difference lies in the domestic consumption of hydrous ethanol, which has been recovering since August and is expected to maintain consumption at high levels in December. Therefore, with a heated domestic demand, the market is likely to maintain exported volumes above 200 thousand m³ but is not expected to reach the levels of December 2022 when more than 310 thousand m³ were exported.

 

Daily recap
In today's session (06), raw sugar in New York dropped sharply, and March/24 closed at US¢ 23.00/lb, a daily decline of 196 points, or 7.9% - reaching the lowest level since the end of June. The percentage fall was the highest since February 3, 2011, after, the day before, raw sugar reached its highest value in history, at US¢ 35.51/lb.
In addition to the high volumes of Brazilian sugar exports, which had recently brought bearish influence, the commodity received updates from India, which brought arguments for significant selling pressure today. According to rumors, the Indian government could review the ethanol blending target in gasoline in 2024, potentially diverting less sugar for biofuel production - opening the possibility of an exportable surplus of sugar by the country.
Finally, it is important to highlight a common movement of sudden devaluation in other commodity markets, such as Brent (-3.83%), corn (-1.3%), and soybeans (-0.8%), among others, showing a more risk-averse financial environment this Wednesday (06).
INDICATORS
Sources: ICE, CEPEA, B3, ANP, Brazilian Central Bank, California Air Resources Board (CARB), CONSECANA, StoneX. *Estimated. Sources: UNICA & StoneX. Design: StoneX.
 
 
 
  • Renewable Fuels

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Renewable Fuels

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.