Thailand Surprises with Nearly 12 Million Tonnes of Sugar Production in the 2025/26 Crop
On April 21, during Brazil's national holiday, sugar prices closed slightly higher, up 0.6% for the most actively traded contract expiring in July 2026, priced at US¢ 13.72/lb. This movement reflects a correction following last week's sharp depreciation.
Current price levels return to those seen before the Iran-US conflict, which had briefly boosted NY#11 sugar prices, momentarily testing levels near 16 cents. From late March onwards, instead of sustaining price recovery, the market began to reflect the oversupply in commodity trade flows, particularly driven by Thailand's significant production growth. This production surge is expected to create a substantial export surplus in the first half of 2026, countering the upward price risks stemming from geopolitical tensions.
NY #11 Sugar Intraday, July SBN26 Contract (US¢/lb)
Source: ICE-US. Design: StoneX.
Thailand
Final Days of the 2025/26 Crop in Thailand | Sugar Production Approaches 12 Million Tonnes
As of April 15, only 11 out of 58 mills operating during Thailand's 2025/26 season (October-September cycle) were still active. Cumulative cane crushing reached 105.5 million tonnes, a year-over-year increase of nearly 15%, marking the highest volume since the 2018/19 season.
Another key indicator that improved during 2025/26 was the sugar recovery rate, which reached 11.33%, up by 0.41 percentage points compared to 2024/25. This improvement contributed 400,000 tonnes to sugar production solely from higher sucrose recovery. Overall, sugar production for 2025/26 reached 11.96 million tonnes, a 19% increase over 2024/25.
Why This Matters
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In March 2026, Thailand's milling pace still showed signs of reduced productivity, with rumors of land losses due to border conflicts with Cambodia and lower yield per hectare (TCH) in northeastern regions impacted by white leaf disease. However, the output declines observed until February were largely attributed to harvest delays caused by stricter government enforcement on sugarcane burning, which accounted for only 3.8% of total milling in 2025/26—a record low.
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Although tougher measures against cane burning created logistical delays and operational challenges, they did not prevent the complete harvest of all available sugarcane fields in Thailand. This scenario led to atypically high crushing volumes during February and March, repositioning production estimates to levels initially expected at the start of the season—between 100 and 105 million tonnes. This strong performance boosts Thailand's export projections, particularly for Q2 2026, when Brazil may take a less prominent role in trade flows due to an increased ethanol-directed production mix in the country's Center-South region.
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What to Expect:
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The coming days are expected to bring the final data for Brazil's 2025/26 season (April-March) in the Center-South region. These figures could provide valuable insights into key metrics such as the sugar-to-ethanol production mix and March productivity levels, offering early clues about the start of the 2026/27 crop.
- Ethanol Market Commentary
- Hydrous ethanol prices began the week with a slight decline, quoted at BRL 3.06/liter at mills in Ribeirão Preto (SP), including taxes. This reflects the progress of the sugarcane harvest in the Center-South region and a high-ethanol production scenario.
INDICATORS
Sources: ICE, CEPEA, B3, ANP, NYMEX, CBOT, Central Bank of Brazil, California Air Resources Board (CARB), CONSECANA, StoneX. Design: StoneX.
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