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USDA Attache: Honduras 2024-2025 Coffee Crop Pegged at 5.5 Million Bags

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

USDA Attache: Honduras 2024-2025 Coffee Crop Pegged at 5.5 Million Bags 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – According to the latest USDA attache report, Honduras’s 2024-2025 coffee crop is forecast at 5.5 million bags, unchanged from the previous year.

Coffee production for MY2023/24 is forecast to be 5.5 million bags, twenty-four percent lower than the previous year estimate for MY2023/24 and gaining similar production trends as in MY2019- 2020. A high incidence of coffee rust and labor shortage; as well as the 5.0 percent decrease in the international price, given the expectations of recovery of the Brazilian coffee production is expected to decrease coffee production directly in Honduras.

Weather conditions are forecast to affect leaf rust starting in the month of May with an average coffee rust incidence of 5.8 percent, and higher incidence in the departments of La Paz (9.7 percent), Francisco Morazán (8.2 percent), Comayagua (6.9 percent), Copan (6.2 percent), Cortes (5.9 percent), Santa Barbara (5.8 percent), El Paraiso (5.7 percent) and Olancho (5.2 percent) A threshold presence of coffee rust of 5-20 percent indicate a medium level incidence, and a range between 0-5 percent indicate a low level incident. From the total of coffee farms sampled by IHCAFE during the month of April, 66 percent of them showed a low-level presence of coffee rust, 29 percent a medium presence and 5 percent with a high presence of coffee rust. Most farms show a low incidence of coffee rust since the summer conditions are still present in most of the coffee regions in Honduras.

The new Honduras coffee production estimate for MY2023/24 is 5.5 million bags, 24 percent below the previous year forecast of 7.2 million bags, among the causes for the production decrease are: high incidence of coffee rust and labor shortage; and a 5.0 percent decrease in the international price, given the expectations of recovery of the Brazilian coffee production. About three percent of the MY2023/24 coffee still needs to be harvested and 40 percent still pending for exports, roasting, and soluble coffee industrialization.

Consumption:
Domestic consumption was pegged at 410,000 bags for 2024-2025, up from the 383,000 bags consumed in the previous crop year.

Trade
FAS Honduras forecasts that the MY2023/24 exports will be 5 million bags, a 19 percent decrease from the previous year MY2022/23 estimate of 6.2 million bags. The evolution of coffee exports MY2023/24 is 2.88 million bags 60 kg showing a progress from the harvest season of 15 percent in the low altitude region, 80 percent in the medium altitude region and 40 percent in the high altitude region (IHCAFE Harvest Forecast Report to May 9 2024) showing a 8 percent decrease compared to 3.13 Millions of 60 kg bags registered in the same period of the year 2022-2023. According to IHCAFE, MY2023/2024 exports as of May 9 totaled 2.88 million bags of 60 kg, showing a percent change decrease of 8 percent compared to the 3.13 million bags registered in the same period of the year 2022-2023. The export volume of 2.88 million 60 kgs bags, its harvest progress is at 80 percent to the month of May waiting for additional progress to be made to September 2024. The average international export price is $253.85 for 60 kg bags. During MY 2023/24 to the month of March Honduras has exported to 58 countries 2.88 million 60 kg bags at an average price of $253.85 per 60 kg bag, a 3 percent coffee price decrease per bag than $261.72 in MY 2022/2023.

Imports
As reported by the Trade Data Monitor, Honduran imports of Green Bean coffee for domestic consumption in marketing year (MY) 2023 were 8,770 Green Bean Equivalent sacks and 14,898 in MY 2024 from Vietnam, Nicaragua, Brazil and Spain, mainly due to lower ending stocks in the previous year, resulting in imports of 10,302 sacks in 2024 from Vietnam, 920 from Nicaragua, 3211 from Brazil and 333 from Spain. Honduran imports of roasted coffee for domestic consumption in marketing year (MY) 2024 were 997 GBE 60 kg sacks a 5.5 percent decrease from the previous year of 1,052 GBE 60 kg sacks and originated mainly from the United States, Colombia, Mexico and Ecuador.

Stocks:
Stocks are held by 70 exporters and roasters from the private sector. Ending stocks estimate for MY2022/23 has been adjusted to 114,000 60-kg bags, following a increase in demand from USA and Europe. TheMY2023/24 forecast for ending stocks is 268,000 60-kg bags, a 135 percent increase compared to MY2022/23. Coffee beans are stored by exporters as inventory needed to meet future contracts and are not meant to influence price. Honduran roasters keep beans for domestic consumption throughout the year. Some stocks may be released to other Central American countries in the course of the year, depending on price and market opportunities. The main destination countries for Honduras roasted coffee in Central America are El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize, and for soluble coffee Guatemala and Panama.

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