Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
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USDA Attache: India’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 5.41 Million Bags
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
CoffeeNetwork
USDA Attache: India’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 5.41 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork – According to the latest USDA attache report, India’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee crop (Oct/Sep) is forecast at 5.41 million 60-kilogram bags, up 5% from the previous crop year.
(From the USDA report)
Production: Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee production (Oct/Sep) at 5.41 million 60-kilogram bags. More specifically, Arabica production is estimated at 1.36 million 60- kilogram bags (81,600 MT) with Robusta production estimated at 4.05 million 60- kilogram bags (243,000 MT). Higher yields for both Arabica (one percent) and Robusta (eight percent) crops are expected due to adequate moisture as a result of above normal rainfall. According to the Coffee Board of India, the post-Monsoon estimate of Arabica production is 102,000 metric tons, however due to heavy rains in December 2020 and January 2021, crop loss has been reported. According to trade sources, major damage has been experienced by the Arabica coffee crop due to white stem borer. The is a serious pest that burrows through the stems of Arabica coffee plants. The white stem borer is a particularly damaging pest in Arabica coffee plantations. The pest’s damage is costly as it not only kills the plant, but it also results in plant removal and replanting costs, increasing producer losses.
Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2021/22 planted area at 455,000 hectares with bearing area expected to fall to 410,000 hectares. The non-bearing area and non-bearing tree estimates are lower compared to last year as the traditional coffee growing regions of Karnataka and Kerala recover from the impact of heavy rains/floods during the latter part of the Northeast Monsoon 2020, and winter rains in 2021. According to official sources, during the months of December 2020 and January 2021, there was heavy rainfall in the coffee growing areas of Karnataka, resulting noteworthy losses to the coffee crop. The Coffee Board of India has yet to publish its final estimates for MY 2020/21.
Yield: Post estimates MY 2021/22 Robusta yields to increase to 1,128 kilograms per hectares, an increase of eight percent from last year. Arabica yields are estimated at 421 kilograms per hectare, marginally higher than last year. According to the Coffee Board of India data, Arabica yields continue to witness a downward trend (refer to figure 3) due to consistent pest infestation issues. As a result, there has been a shift from Arabica to Robusta planting due to the susceptibility of the Arabica crop to white stem borer pest and leaf rust. The evolving distribution pattern of rains in the last decade is also pushing the cultivation of Arabica into much higher altitudes.
Trade: Post estimates MY 2021/22 exports at 5.68 million 60-kilogram bags (341,100 MT) as a result of increased demand in major export markets. Green bean and soluble coffee exports are estimated to be marginally (one percent) higher than last year. According to Coffee Board of India data as of May 7, the number of export permits issued (by value) between October 2020 - May 2021 in MY 2020/21 are 15 percent higher than the same period last year. Italy, Belgium, Germany, and Russia remain India’s top export markets. According to preliminary data published by the Ministry of Commerce, export shipments in April 2021 were 74 percent higher compared to April 2020, however they are three percent lower than April 2019. The major export destinations for these shipments were Belgium, Italy, Germany, and Jordan. Higher than expected exports of green beans have led to much lower carryover stocks. Trade sources indicate that a number of logistics/supply chain issues persist, including the availability of food grade containers and higher freight costs, nonetheless orders remain strong in the short to medium term. Recovery is underway in major export markets as vaccines become more widely available and consumer spending grows due to excess savings and fiscal stimulus.
Post estimates MY 2021/22 imports at 1.42 million 60-kilogram bags (83,520 MT). Post’s estimate is two percent higher than last year. Imports of green beans and soluble coffee are higher due to greater international demand for further processed coffee. Most imported coffee is processed for re-export due to duty exemptions and lower overall prices. In MY 2020/21, imports of green coffee into India came from Indonesia, Kenya, Vietnam, and Uganda.
Consumption: Post estimates MY 2021/22 consumption to rise by nearly two percent to 1.2 million 60-kilogram bags (72,000 MT). Demand is largely driven by retail sales of soluble/instant coffee for at home consumption. Branded product sales have performed strongly during the pandemic as households have been forced to eat and drink more at home. Sales have been buoyed by the availability of coffee products through e-commerce and social media platforms amid changing consumer buying behaviors. As retail outlets and grocery stores remained shut due to COVID-19 restrictions, consumers switched to online platforms for their purchases. The rise is online retail sales have been offset by the decline/slowdown in sales experienced by the hospitality (hotels and restaurants) and institutional (corporate offices, airports) sectors. Buoyed by the demand for ready-to-cook items during the pandemic, demand for soluble/instant coffee also witnessed higher demand. During the past five years, household consumption of soluble coffee has constituted a much larger share (57 percent) of domestic consumption, and continues to increase. The rise in online retail demand has led to a number of manufacturers focusing on specialty, branded, and high-value coffees (niche products). Coffee has the advantage of being an inherently natural product, leaving it open to other ingredient and functional innovations that can further drive consumer interest. Small, boutique brands have already begun moving into the space. In the short-term, restrictions on non-essential activities are expected to expand given the current COVID-19 second wave. As such, so online retail/home deliveries will likely be the preferred channel for coffee purchases.
Stocks: There are no government-held stocks. Instead, stocks are privately held by producers or traders. Trade sources indicate that around 25 percent of MY 2020/21 Robusta cherry crop stocks are held by planters in anticipation of higher prices. Almost 80 percent of the Arabica parchment crop has already been traded as prices have been 4-5 percent higher during the peak arrival months as compared to last year. Post estimates tight MY 2021/22 ending stocks at 637,000 60-kilogram bags (38,000 mt) as strong export demand puts pressure on stocks.
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