CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In the latest USDA attache report, India’s 2023/24 coffee production is forecast at 5.9 million 60-kilogram bags, two percent higher than the previous estimate. Arabica production is estimated at 1.4 million 60- kilogram bags (85,200 metric tons (MT)), while Robusta production is estimated at 4.5 million 60- kilogram bags (271,800 MT). The Coffee Board of India currently estimates MY 2023/24 post-blossom (pre-monsoon) Arabica and Robusta production at 113,000 and 261,200 MT, respectively.
While Arabica harvest takes place from November to January, Robusta is harvested from December to February. The south Indian state of Karnataka remains the top coffee producer with over 51 percent of area, and 70 percent of production share. The states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu follow, with cumulative production of these three states accounting for 80 percent coffee area and contribute 96 percent to India’s coffee production.
In July 2023, the Coffee Board of India published its final MY 2022/23 production estimate of 5.8 million 60-kilogram bags (352,000 MT), with Arabica at 1.6 million 60- kilogram bags (100,000 MT), and Robusta at 4.2 million 60- kilogram bags (252,000 MT). However, trade sources estimate Arabica production 15 percent lower at 1.4 million 60-kilogram bags (85,000 MT) due to prevalence of white stem borer.
Area
Post estimates MY 2023/24 planted area at 477,000 hectares (ha), and a bearing area of 434,000 ha. The Robusta bearing area is expected to increase by five percent, but is offset by a similar reduction in Arabica bearing area during the ‘off year’ of the biennial production cycle. With coffee estates in the traditional coffee growing regions of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu near protected forest reserves, there is limited opportunity for further area expansion, although growers are gradually shifting toward replanting aging plantations at an annual rate of one to two percent per year, resulting in a difference of approximately 40,000 ha between harvested and planted area.
Yields
Post estimates Robusta yields at 1,187 kilograms per hectare, well above the three-year and five-year average, on expectation of normal rains in November. Arabica yields remain forecasted at 416 kilograms per hectare. Despite the crop entering its ‘off-year’ of the biennial production cycle and deficit monsoon rains, rain distribution was optimal and widespread and will likely boost yields. Additionally, a lack of excess rains resulted in less fruit damage and droppings. Unlike Arabica, Robusta requires pre-blossom, and post-blossom showers at regular intervals. Given erratic rainfall, most Robusta farmers require sprinklers or other types of irrigation systems to meet these requirements.
A dry period of two-three months during December to February could facilitate uniform flowering of Robusta plants to blossom showers (summer showers received in mid-February to March as they trigger uniform flowering of coffee bushes) for bud formation. Trade sources indicate that fly picking (small scale picking of ripe berries) began in October, and main harvest will begin in December.
Consumption
Post estimates MY 2023/24 coffee consumption one percent lower than the previous estimate at 1.2 million 60-kilogram bags (76,200 MT). The slowdown in demand is driven by sales of soluble coffee for at-home consumption through e-commerce and retail channels. Post expects the rise in at-home consumption will be supported by expansion of the hospitality (hotels, restaurants, catering events) and institutional (corporate offices, airports) sector. Post estimates MY 2023/24 household consumption of soluble coffee to constitute a much larger share (70 percent) of domestic consumption. Trade sources indicate that robust sales during the last two years have led several regional players (local roasters and soluble coffee manufacturers) to pursue and expand their capacity and footprint in newer cities, and explore new formats (specialty cafes, kiosks, pop-up café, café bookstores), with wider product specialty offerings like espresso or instant, cold brews, functional coffees (includes functional ingredients and botanicals to boost immunity), and flavored coffees. With increasing demand for convenience and changing consumer preferences, the soluble coffee market is anticipated to witness substantial growth in the long term.
For roast and ground coffee, the growing interest of international brands and emergence of several local specialty coffee chains is increasing awareness and demand for premium-quality coffee. However, the consumption base is small with annual consumption estimated around 23,000 MT.
Stocks
Post estimates MY 2023/24 carryover stocks 60 percent lower than the previous estimate of 179,000 60- kilogram bags (10,700 MT), on strong export shipments to Jordan, Turkey, Tunisia and UAE. There are no government-held stocks. Stocks are privately held by either growers or traders. Trade sources indicate that current high prices have led to limited stocks of Robusta on the market. However, when peak arrivals begin in mid to late December, prices are expected to correct marginally. MY 2023/24 carryover stocks are expected to remain low following the trend of last two years driven largely to strong exports.
Trade
Post forecasts MY 2023/24 exports at 6.3 million 60-kilogram bags (380,000 MT), unchanged from previous estimate. Post expects export demand to remain strong throughout MY 2023/24, however trade sources do indicate that current prices are limiting international buyers from placing larger orders. According to the Coffee Board of India data, green bean prices for Arabica parchment have fallen by 23 percent since June 2023 due to anticipation of higher-than-expected global supplies. While Robusta cherry prices have declined marginally by five percent since June 2023 on strong export demand prospects. However, global prices of Arabica have fallen by 11 percent, and Robusta prices have risen by 10 percent since June 2023. International buyers are limiting inventory to two-three months, and do not want to carry inventory at high prices.
Trade sources indicate exporters have started diversifying and shipments to markets such as the UAE, Jordan, Turkey, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt are growing. But the major export destinations in MY 2022/23 (Oct/Sep) remained Italy (14 percent market share), Russia (nine percent market share), Germany (nine percent market share), and Belgium (six percent market share). Post estimates MY 2023/24 imports at 1.5 million 60-kilogram bags (93,000 MT), unchanged from the previous estimate. Most imported coffee is processed for re-export due to duty exemptions and lower overall prices. Almost 97 percent of imports were green beans meant for processing fueled by growing demand for soluble coffee. In MY 2022/23, imports of green coffee came from Indonesia, Vietnam, Kenya, and Uganda.
