Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
USDA Sees Global Supply Surplus of 1.9 Million Bags for the 2023-2024 Coffee Year
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
USDA Sees Global Supply Surplus of 1.9 Million Bags for the 2023-2024 Coffee Year
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In their biannual World Coffee Report published today, the USDA has pegged global production for the 2023-2024 coffee year at 171.4 million bag, revised down 1.7% from their June estimate of 174.34 million bags. Consumption is expected at 169.5 million bags, down 0.4% from the June estimate of 170.23. This indicates a supply surplus of 1.9 million bags compared to the 4.11 million bag surplus previously forecast.
World coffee production for 2023/24 is forecast to reach 171.4 million bags (60 kilograms), 6.9 million bags higher than the previous year. Higher output in Brazil, Colombia, and Ethiopia is expected to more than offset reduced production in Indonesia. Global coffee bean exports are expected up 8.4 million bags to 119.9 million, primarily on strong shipments from Brazil. With global consumption forecast at a record 169.5 million bags, ending inventories are expected to continue to tighten to a 12-year low of 26.5 million bags.
Brazil combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast up 3.7 million bags to 66.3 million in 2023/24. Arabica output is forecast to improve 5.1 million bags to 44.9 million. In January 2023, coffee trees in top growing region Minas Gerais experienced higher than average rains during the fruit development stage, causing difficulties for some growers in controlling plant diseases and pests. However, increased precipitation resulted in coarser and heavier beans compared to the last crop, which contributed to production gains. Although output is expected to expand, this quantity is below previous that peaked at nearly 50.0 million bags. Arabica trees in many growing regions continue to recover from severe weather that occurred in 2021 including severe frosts, high temperatures, and below average rainfall that lowered production in 2021/22 and 2022/23. Following 6 years of expansion, the Robusta harvest is forecast to decline 1.4 million bags to 21.4 million as reduced precipitation and cooler temperatures leading up to the flowering stage lowered yields in Espirito Santo, where the vast majority is grown. Coffee bean exports are forecast to rebound 7.3 million bags to 39.5 million, fueled by higher supplies and stronger EU and U.S. import demand.
Vietnam production is forecast to add 300,000 bags to reach 27.5 million. Cultivated area is forecast unchanged, with nearly 95 percent of total output remaining as Robusta. However, with lower total supplies due to last year’s stocks drawdown, bean exports are forecast to decline 2.4 million bags to 23.0 million.
Colombia Arabica production is forecast up 800,000 bags to 11.5 million on slightly higher yields. However, yields remain nearly 15 percent below normal because growers limited fertilizer use due to high prices. Bean exports, mostly to the United States and EU, are forecast up 1.2 million bags to 10.8 million on strong demand.
Indonesia combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast down 2.2 million bags to 9.7 million. Robusta production is expected to drop 2.1 million bags to 8.4 million. Excessive rain during cherry development lowered yields and caused sub-optimal conditions for pollination in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java, where approximately 75 percent of coffee is grown. Arabica production is seen dipping slightly to 1.3 million bags. Bean exports are forecast to plummet 2.7 million bags to 5.0 million on sharply reduced supplies.
India combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast nearly unchanged at 6.0 million bags. Arabica production is forecast to drop 200,000 bags to 1.4 million due primarily to a prolonged dry spell from December 2022 to March 2023 which was followed by poor pre-monsoon rains. Robusta production is expected to rise 300,000 bags to 4.5 million on slightly higher yields. Bean exports are forecast up 300,000 bags to 4.3 million on a slight inventory drawdown.
Revisions to 2022/23 Forecasts
World production is lowered 5.5 million bags from the June 2023 estimate to 164.5 million.
• Vietnam is 2.6 million bags lower to 27.2 million due to dry conditions that dropped yields.
• Ethiopia is reduced 1.0 million bags to 7.3 million as dry conditions lowered yields.
• Colombia is down 600,000 bags to 10.7 million as damaging rains fell in some areas during the
flowering period.
World bean exports are lowered 4.9 million bags to 111.6 million.
• Colombia is down 1.2 million bags to 9.6 million on lower output and higher ending stocks.
• Ethiopia is lowered 900,000 bags to 3.9 million on reduced output.
• Vietnam is reduced 600,000 bags to 25.4 million on lower output.
World ending stocks are revised down 4.0 million bags to 27.6 million.
• EU is down 3.3 million bags to 9.3 million on stronger-than-anticipated consumption.
• Vietnam is lowered 1.4 million bags to 300,000 on reduced production.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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