Daily Coffee Report 8/13/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Vietnam's Export Surge Reinforces Its Growing Influence in the Global Coffee Market
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - New data from the Vietnam Customs Authority shows the country exported approximately 21.01 million bags of coffee during the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year, representing a 25.22% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. The strong performance underscores both the recovery of Vietnamese supplies following recent weather-related production challenges and the growing importance of robusta coffee in an increasingly price-sensitive global market.
The export surge comes at a critical time for the coffee sector. Roasters across Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East have been adjusting blends in response to historically elevated arabica prices over the past two years, increasing demand for robusta and supporting investment throughout Vietnam's coffee sector.
Vietnam has transformed itself from a relatively minor coffee producer into the world's dominant robusta supplier over the past three decades. Today, the country accounts for roughly 40% of global robusta production and serves as a cornerstone of supply chains for soluble coffee manufacturers, commercial roasters and private-label coffee brands around the world.
The latest export figures suggest that international demand for Vietnamese coffee remains exceptionally strong despite broader uncertainty in commodity markets.
Robusta has become increasingly important as roasters seek ways to control costs amid inflationary pressures, volatile freight markets and changing consumer purchasing behavior. Strong consumer demand for instant coffee products, ready-to-drink beverages and value-oriented coffee blends has further supported robusta consumption globally.
As a result, Vietnam's role has evolved beyond simply being a large exporter. The country now exerts significant influence on global coffee pricing, availability and trade flows, particularly within the robusta market.
Looking ahead, market participants are already focusing on Vietnam's upcoming 2026/27 crop, which will begin harvesting toward the end of the year.
Current industry forecasts project production at approximately 29.5 million bags of robusta coffee, positioning Vietnam for another substantial crop. If realized, the harvest would provide additional supplies to global markets at a time when many analysts expect coffee demand to continue expanding, particularly throughout Asia and emerging economies.
Export projections are equally significant.
Of the anticipated crop, Vietnam is expected to ship approximately 25.5 million bags of green coffee, highlighting the country's continued export-oriented business model. Domestic consumption has been gradually increasing, supported by expanding café chains and a growing middle class, but exports remain the primary outlet for Vietnamese production.
Perhaps most notably, this projected export volume would account for approximately 49.5% of all global robusta coffee exports, meaning nearly one out of every two bags of robusta traded internationally could originate from Vietnam.
That level of market concentration is rare within agricultural commodities and reinforces the country's strategic importance to roasters worldwide.
The implications extend well beyond Vietnam itself.
As Brazil harvests what could become one of its largest coffee crops on record, traders have increasingly been debating whether global coffee markets are transitioning from a period of scarcity toward a more balanced supply environment.
Vietnam's expanding export volumes strengthen that narrative.
Additional robusta supplies entering the market could help moderate price pressures for commercial-grade coffee and provide relief for manufacturers that have faced elevated raw material costs over the past several years. Soluble coffee producers, in particular, remain heavily dependent on Vietnamese robusta supplies.
At the same time, growing exports from Vietnam may limit upside potential for robusta prices, especially if weather conditions remain favorable through the remainder of the production cycle and logistics networks continue normalizing.
However, markets should not assume that larger supplies automatically translate into lower prices.
Global coffee inventories remain relatively tight by historical standards, demand growth continues in several key consuming regions, and weather risks persist across major producing countries. Additionally, any disruption to Vietnam's production outlook—from adverse weather during the upcoming growing season to shifts in fertilizer costs or labor availability—would quickly have ramifications throughout the global coffee trade.
Another longer-term trend worth monitoring is Vietnam's effort to capture more value from its coffee sector.
Government agencies and private companies have increasingly invested in processing capacity, specialty coffee production, sustainable certification programs and domestic consumption initiatives. International coffee chains continue expanding their presence in Vietnamese cities, while local operators are building sophisticated retail networks that are transforming coffee culture throughout the country.
Although green bean exports remain the backbone of the industry, Vietnam is gradually moving higher up the value chain through roasted coffee, soluble products and branded consumer offerings.
This evolution could eventually reshape trade flows and reduce dependence on raw bean exports alone.
Vietnam's latest export figures highlight a country that has become indispensable to the modern coffee industry. Exports during the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year jumped more than 25%, while forecasts for the upcoming 2026/27 crop point toward another large harvest and even stronger participation in global trade.
With production expected to reach 29.5 million bags and exports projected at 25.5 million bags, Vietnam is on track to supply nearly half of all robusta coffee traded worldwide.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 8/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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