Commodity Market Outlook Will Draw on Trade Risks and Weather Volatility

Trade Policy Risks and Weather Watchpoints for 2025 Says StoneX’s Suderman

Key Takeaways

• USDA's April WASDE report offered neutral data, but global trade and policy risks continue to loom large
• Corn export demand is strong, yet future biofuel policy remains a swing factor for market direction
• Weather volatility and tariff uncertainty could drive sharp market moves during the 2025 growing season

USDA Numbers Calm Markets but Don’t Eliminate Risk

Despite expectations leading into the April WASDE report, USDA’s global numbers landed squarely in the neutral zone. That gave grain markets room to breathe—for now. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, noted that while there were no major surprises, the context around these numbers remains anything but calm.

Suderman emphasized that corn demand strength was a notable bright spot, with year-to-date inspections running well ahead of pace needed to meet USDA targets. Soybeans were more ambiguous, with questions around crush demand and export pace creating lingering uncertainty. Wheat remains the least fundamentally supported of the three, with ample stocks and muted export interest.

Export Demand Holds for Corn as Markets Eye Biofuel Policy

Suderman pointed to continued strength in corn export inspections and ethanol use, both exceeding USDA expectations. But while that’s positive in the short term, future support will hinge on global demand resilience and the direction of U.S. energy policy—especially as it intersects with biofuels. The Trump administration’s signal to collaborate with Big Oil on a new biofuel framework raises hopes of clarity, but execution remains uncertain. Ethanol mandates are expected to remain near 15 billion gallons, while biodiesel targets are poised to rise—potentially lifting soybean demand if policy details align.

Weather Still the Big Unknown for Grains

While macro and trade dynamics often dominate headlines, Suderman reminded the audience that weather remains the biggest variable for grain markets. He underscored 2025 as a year with heightened weather risks, particularly for corn. Soil moisture maps and historical analogs point to a scenario in which July and August temperatures could make or break yields. Heat and dryness during these key months, especially in the western Corn Belt, could lead to a supply shock in a market not priced for stress.

Tariff and Shipping Costs Cast a Long Shadow

Trade policy remains a wildcard. Suderman detailed how the “Trump 2.0” tariff regime—with 10% blanket tariffs on nearly all countries and escalations for retaliatory moves—has created ripple effects across the ag economy. China, having chosen escalation over negotiation, now faces 125% tariffs, putting U.S. commodity exports to Asia in a precarious position. The administration’s proposed port fees for ships tied to China add another layer of concern, particularly for grain exporters. Depending on how these fees are structured and applied, they could represent a material cost increase for shippers.

Election-Year Headlines and Summer Volatility Could Sway Markets

Looking ahead, Suderman sees a market increasingly vulnerable to headline-driven volatility—from tariff feuds and regulatory shifts to unpredictable summer weather patterns. “We’ve moved from a world of data dependency to a world of narrative volatility,” Suderman said. “Markets are now trading tweets and tariffs as much as they are fundamentals.” With uncertainty elevated across all fronts, Suderman’s message to producers and market participants was clear: Stay nimble. A neutral USDA report may offer a short reprieve, but the 2025 growing season and trade landscape remain anything but settled. This article is based on insights shared during Arlan Suderman’s April 2025 Commodity and Economic Outlook webinar. Watch the full episode here.

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–– Written by: Andy Catsimanes
–– Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist