By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
StoneX Senior Metals Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray shares first-hand insights from LME Asia Week, outlining why copper remains resilient while policy risks cloud the broader industrial metals outlook.
“Copper really is … the odd one out against the rest of the base metals with quite robust fundamentals”. Scott-Gray noted mine supply growth lagging expectations and a record one-million-ton concentrate deficit this year. Refined units remain scarce outside the United States, where high premiums draw material despite the prospect of 25% tariffs. She sees a modest 240 kt refined surplus, cautioning that Chinese demand may cool after front-loaded purchases and the end of the mid-May peak season.
Aluminum, by contrast, faces “a balanced market for this year [and] next year”. Peak solar-panel demand in China has likely passed, and 25% U.S. duties on Chinese aluminum and semis divert roughly 800 kt of exports. Continued Russian inflows and emerging Indonesian capacity also swell supply. Scott-Gray expects the market to shift from 2024 deficit to 2025 surplus, pressuring prices.
Two strategic announcements stood out. The LME added three more Hong Kong warehouses, seven in total this year, “trying to open up access to mainland China”. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Futures Exchange unveiled 34 proposals to let foreign traders post margins in dollars and bypass on-shore intermediaries—moves aimed at boosting Chinese price discovery. Yet tariff risk lingers:“near-term, macro wise, [we’re] still leaning bearish” as the U.S. appeals a court ruling on Trump-era levies.
Nickel remains “one of the most unloved base metals” with multi-year surpluses despite Indonesian output cuts. Zinc and lead face limited upside as industrial growth downgrades overshadow recovering supply. Tin, though easing after Myanmar’s 20-month mine ban lifted, “still has robust fundamentals” with demand from energy storage and AI. StoneX foresees a balanced-to-deficit tin market, but fundamentals were stronger in H1 than likely in H2.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst
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