Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
Watch expert analysis and commentary from our team of market professionals, designed to inform your strategic decision-making.
Stay up to date with in-depth discussions, market trends, and actionable insights from industry experts.
Gold's direction during a falling dollar is one of the more reliable relationships in macro, with a record stretching back more than 50 years. The size of the move is a different question entirely, and the recent one sat near the top of the historical range.
Commodity inflation has moved from a temporary input into a structural one in sovereign bond pricing, and the U.S. Treasury curve is showing exactly where. The oil correlation now sits at the 10 year point rather than the two year, which changes what an inflation print is actually worth.
A strong super El Niño has started, but the crop damage that would lift food prices is still expected to land between September and December. Indian wheat area and Southeast Asian palm oil production sit at the front of the transmission chain, with Brazil the larger unresolved question.
Damage to Black Sea ports has stalled grain exports, but the more serious risk is now forming on the farm. Collapsed farmgate prices and a Russian fuel crisis have put part of the wheat harvest in question.
The US dollar index is rising on falling volume, and volume confirmation is the test that separates a trend with buyers behind it from a corrective bounce. Matt Simpson works through what the participation behind the advance is showing.
Gold is taking in each shallow pullback while the rate market still prices a Federal Reserve hike, and the gap between those two signals is the story. James Stanley explains why gold reads central bank credibility rather than the inflation data itself.
Market commentary Interest Rates- Thought Leadership The Reserve Bank of Australia's updated forecasts lowered the bar for an upside inflation surprise while building more labor market weakness into the baseline. With wages, jobs, inflation, growth and spending data all landing before the next policy meeting, the risk sits with front end pricing that still treats a hike as remote.
Potash sits inside a fertilizer market gripped by missing sulfur and absent Chinese phosphate, and its own supply is comfortable. Freight is what keeps the price from softening, and it reaches every railcar, barge and vessel in the trade.
The German DAX keeps setting record highs while crude oil climbs and U.S. inventories thin out to levels not seen in over forty years. The bond market is the channel that will decide how long that divergence holds.
Asset class leadership rotates from year to year, and the category that leads in one year rarely repeats at the top in the next. A diversified mix keeps a portfolio exposed to whatever leads next while smoothing the ride as rankings reshuffle.
A strong cane crop in Brazil's Center-South does not automatically translate into more sugar reaching the export market. What decides the outcome is the split between sugar and ethanol, and that split is moving.
Platinum and palladium may sit in the precious metals family, but their biggest moves often come from industrial demand rather than safe-haven flows. Understanding that split explains why the two metals led the wider metals complex higher while gold and silver waited on very different news.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer.
This website is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (“SFP”) (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) as a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for dealing in securities and dealing in futures contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“SFA”) (ACN: 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and brokering FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and brokering stock indices and option transactions.
