By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodity Economist at StoneX, shares insights on how the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and crop risks are shaping commodities.
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, as expected, following its recent meeting. The dot plot showed most members see one or two cuts this year, but seven of nineteen expect no cuts. Suderman notes, “there’s really no surprises there and none were really expected that we didn’t expect the Fed to change interest rates at this meeting or make any other significant policy changes and it didn’t”. The Fed is “just going to wait and see so to speak”, closely monitoring data on inflation and unemployment before taking further action.
The escalation between Iran and Israel has introduced new volatility. Suderman says, “it’s a daily barrage of attacks from both sides going on here”, with Israel having the upper hand. He explains that Israel’s actions could lead to regime change in Iran, while Russia and China are concerned about losing influence in the region. The conflict has forced the US to shift military assets, increasing risks to energy supplies. “The longer it goes on the more risk there is that it could spread to a broader conflict spread to energy assets as well as more fertilizer assets”.
Oil and fertilizer prices are in focus as traders watch for disruptions. Crude oil prices tested recent highs as risk to shipping lanes remains elevated. “That risk to something happening to the Strait, where a fifth of the world’s crude oil moves through, continues to be a risk that we’re monitoring going forward”. Suderman highlights that fertilizer output has already declined in the region, with energy markets remaining sensitive to further escalation.
The US wheat crop faces “seasonal harvest pressure” and quality issues, especially in the southwestern plains where disease has hit yields. Soybeans are supported by the EPA’s new biofuel blending mandate, but traders are cautious as “weather risks for corn and soybeans” persist heading into July and August. Suderman notes, “the odds are elevated that we will see it happen at some point we just don’t know for sure if it will happen and how extensive it will be”, as forecasters debate whether a hot, dry pattern will develop in the Midwest.
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
Sign up for a free Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub
---- Written by Gus Farrow
---- Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A softer run of U.S. data is doing more to move the U.S. dollar than any chart, with a jobs report and an inflation print set to land back to back. A cooler U.S. CPI report would hand the Federal Reserve room to ease, and that prospect is already loosening the dollar's grip.
The euro-dollar has bounced off multi-year support, but the more important shift is happening in interest rate expectations. As bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike fade, the U.S. dollar is quietly losing the tailwind that carried its recent strength.
The U.S. dollar is the single biggest swing factor for gold and silver, and its long-term trend is now being tested. A confirmed turn in the dollar could reset the outlook for precious metals, either capping them further or opening room toward new records.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
