Trump’s Tax Bill and Trade Deals Drive Market Uncertainty
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, discusses recent US tax legislation, trade negotiations, and their impacts on commodities and markets.
Key Takeaways
The US tax bill aims to provide business tax certainty but faces House opposition.
The US-Vietnam trade agreement lowers tariffs and challenges China’s regional influence.
Recent US jobs data dampens expectations for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts.
US Tax Bill Advances Amid Political Drama
Arlan Suderman details the House and Senate negotiations on the president’s tax bill, which combines the budget, debt ceiling, and tax cuts. The bill’s passage is critical to avoid the largest tax increase in US history starting in 2026. Despite opposition and marathon speeches in the House, momentum is building to pass the bill and provide business certainty ahead of the new year.
“What it would do was be give some certainty to business,” Suderman explains, emphasizing the importance of tax certainty for corporate and consumer decision-making.
Trade and Tariff Developments Affecting Commodities
The expiration of the 90-day tariff pause on July 9 raises stakes for US trade policy. Suderman highlights the recent US-Vietnam trade deal that reduces tariffs on US autos and agricultural products, posing a challenge to China’s influence and supply chains. This agreement could open significant opportunities for US commodities like ethanol, corn, wheat, and beef in Vietnam.
China’s Economic Struggles and US Export Opportunities
China’s weakening economic data and declining foreign direct investment create uncertainties, but potential renewed commitments to purchase US agricultural products under the phase one trade deal could offer opportunities. Suderman remains cautiously optimistic but skeptical until seeing concrete commitments.
“I’m going to remain a skeptic until I see large quantities of commitments of US commodities by China” he says, but acknowledges the possibility.
Market Outlook and Biofuels Program
Growing US crop conditions remain favorable, though trade uncertainty may influence selling pressure. The biofuels program tied to the tax bill is optimistic but faces risks from pending EPA decisions on refinery exemptions. Soy oil prices are rising on expectations of increased domestic feedstock demand, reshaping global vegetable oil markets. Recent strong jobs data suggest the Federal Reserve may hold rates longer, impacting market sentiment.
Make Market Insights Your Competitive Advantage
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
