Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales, breaks down recent trade actions, crop updates, and market sentiment across the global grains complex.
Oesterle described current U.S. trade actions as “back into chaos”, with tariffs being reinstated or extended depending on geopolitical signals. Markets reacted to the U.S.-Indonesia wheat deal and a U.S.-Vietnam agreement, but both had limited net new demand. China continues to diversify import origins, adding Ethiopia for soybean meal, highlighting a broader shift in trade alignments.
Ukraine’s export quotas to the EU are sharply lower than previous years, and early yields in the south are disappointing. Meanwhile, Russia issued mixed signals on its wheat production outlook. In the US, wheat harvest is over halfway done, but crop ratings have declined slightly. France is seeing good quality wheat and a possible record crop in Romania.
Maize crops in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, and Bosnia face up to 30% losses if rains don’t arrive soon. Western Europe also experienced a heatwave, while northern China’s corn crop is suffering from excessive rainfall. These risks contrast with strong corn outlooks in Brazil and the U.S., where weather has been mostly favorable.
U.S. soybean crop ratings remain stable at 66% good to excellent. Brazil exported 13.4 million tons in June. In Europe, rapeseed harvests are underway with decent moisture levels and good oil content in France. Oesterle is watching speculative positions and the Paris Sept-Dec wheat spread as key indicators going forward.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
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