StoneX Senior Metals Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray unpacks how tariff speculation is reshaping the copper market.
Trump's recent comments suggested U.S. copper tariffs could rise to 50% and begin August 1. “The fact that they're now coming in the 1st of August did catch the market off guard”, Scott-Gray said. Markets had expected a longer timeline, potentially through November. The proposed rate is also higher than the anticipated range of 10% to 25%.
COMEX copper surged to all-time highs while LME copper fell sharply, leading to a record spread of over $2,700 per ton. “The tariff is not pricing in the 50%... we’re more like 28%”, she noted. Inventory tightness outside the US, especially in LME and Shanghai, added to market stress after months of rerouted shipments into the U.S. in anticipation of policy changes.
Uncertainty around exemptions and coverage of different copper types means trade flows remain volatile. “We do expect a lot of material to enter the U.S.… maybe through different mechanisms”, including shipments into Hawaii or Puerto Rico to beat the tariff deadline. If tariffs are broad-based and immediate, material could quickly divert back to Asia and South America.
If 50% tariffs are implemented without exemptions, Scott-Gray expects bearish pressure on LME prices while COMEX remains elevated due to US import reliance. “We expect that copper prices over the next couple of months will start to track back towards this $9,000 per tonne level”. The transition away from policy-driven price action may allow LME copper to resume its role as a bellwether of industrial demand.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst
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