By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Josh Linville, StoneX VP of Fertilizer, breaks down how major shifts in urea buying, Chinese exports, and potash project delays are influencing global fertilizer markets.
India secured nearly 1.5 million tonnes of urea in its latest tender, a result that exceeded many market expectations. Linville explained, “They came strong, said we’re looking for 2 million tonne this time... the final number 1.5”. While slightly short of the goal, this purchase gives India breathing room ahead of the application season, supported by a solid monsoon.
China’s fertilizer export activity saw a marked increase in June, though total volumes remain low compared to historic averages. “Urea January through May. Cumulative total only 11,000 tonne... it surged to 66,000,” Linville noted. Despite this jump, much more supply is needed to reach annual targets, and continued increases are expected in the coming months.
The market has been closely watching the progress of BHP’s Canadian potash mine, anticipated to boost global supply. Linville described the latest news as “disappointing for the potash market”, with phase one completion now likely delayed to mid-2027 and later phases potentially pushed into the 2030s. This reflects both rising costs and a well-supplied market outlook.
These shifts in supply and project timelines are set to influence pricing and availability through the rest of the year. As Linville summarized, “Potash looks very well supplied out there. And all of a sudden you got one of the biggest miners in the world saying, yeah, our outlook is the same”. Stakeholders will be watching India’s next moves, further Chinese export trends, and updates on project developments to gauge the market’s next direction.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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